Weekly Market Outlook for the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Focus Points

1. Continued communication through US-Iran negotiation channels, combined with the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, led to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $88.28/barrel, down $1.16/barrel (-1.30% week-on-week). ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $100.20/barrel, down $0.38/barrel (-0.38% week-on-week). China's INE crude oil futures market was closed for the National Day holiday.

2. As of October 7, Japanese naphtha closed at $936.38/ton, an increase of $18.50/ton from the previous trading day.

3. Prior to the holiday, prices from major domestic producers of pyrolysis C5 remained stable. Today, private enterprises' pyrolysis C5 prices are temporarily steady but slightly lower than those of major producers. During the holiday, mixed C5 prices in Shandong declined to some extent, exerting negative pressure on residual liquids. Regarding deep processing, isoprene monomer inventories were low before the holiday, keeping prices relatively firm. However, curing agent producers halted operations during the holiday, while resin prices remained temporarily stable with moderate buying interest.

4. Before the holiday, the domestic market for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid maintained stable prices and fulfilled existing contracts. Gasoline prices in the Shandong market fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of its homogeneous product, mixed C5, trended strongly. Downstream restocking was largely completed before the holiday. It is expected that the pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market will maintain stability primarily by executing existing contracts.

5. The domestic piperylene market operated steadily with narrow fluctuations before the holiday. Prices of upstream and downstream products remained stable. Approaching the National Day holiday, downstream procurement basically stalled. Coupled with plans by most curing agent industry players for short-term shutdowns during the holiday, this constrained further upward movement in the market. Piperylene production remained at a relatively low level due to tight feedstock supply. Factories focused mainly on pre-sales and contract orders, resulting in low overall shipment pressure. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,000 RMB/ton.

6. The domestic isoprene market trended steadily with a slight upward bias before the holiday. Tight feedstock supply constrained operating rates of C5 separation units, maintaining the industry at low utilization levels. Producer inventories were not accumulated, leading to low shipment pressure and supporting quotes. Approaching the National Day holiday, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling entered its final stage, with only sporadic purchases from some non-mainstream downstream users. Market transactions primarily involved fulfilling earlier orders. Mainstream bid/ask prices in the East China market ranged from 13,600 to 14,500 RMB/ton.

7. Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) maintained a steady trend before the holiday, with prices ranging from 8,900 to 9,300 RMB/ton. Lower-end prices were stable for regular customers, while higher-end prices were subject to spot negotiations. The approaching holiday and transportation impacts resulted in low purchasing interest. DCPD supply remained limited, sustaining a consolidating market trend.

8. Mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,600 to 11,000 RMB/ton before the holiday. Due to relatively high resin prices, downstream users mostly maintained rigid demand procurement. Some rigid demand procurement continued in northern regions, boosting receiving enthusiasm, while conditions in southern regions were slightly weaker. Market shipment performance varied, with both increases and decreases observed.

9. Mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 11,800 to 13,600 RMB/ton, while de-cyclized adhesive C5 petroleum resin prices ranged from 10,500 to 11,200 RMB/ton before the holiday. High prices may amplify certain risks for downstream users. Procurement was primarily driven by rigid demand, though some active stockpiling persisted. Transaction volumes increased, and short-term spot availability was low, suggesting prices would continue to rise steadily.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 consolidates; Isoprene fluctuates narrowly; Piperylene fluctuates narrowly; Dicyclopentadiene remains temporarily stable; C5 petroleum resins show small increases amid stability.

II. Price Tables

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain (Unit: RMB/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices are expected to remain temporarily stable but appear somewhat weak. Mixed C5 prices in Shandong have dropped to 7,100 RMB/ton. Private enterprise prices are expected to weaken, exerting some negative pressure on major producers. In terms of deep processing, the market is expected to consolidate temporarily, with resin buyers showing wait-and-see attitudes.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to have downside potential. During the holiday, mainstream gasoline prices declined, and mixed C5 prices in the Shandong market fell to a mainstream level of 7,100 RMB/ton. Given the bearish sentiment in crude oil, Chempricehub News expects the pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market to face downward expectations in the near term.

Overnight crude oil price declines have dampened sentiment among mid-stream and downstream markets. During the holiday, gasoline prices saw a slight drop, and overall shipping atmosphere was poor. Although the market faces bearish sentiment, post-holiday restocking demand is expected to provide support. Chempricehub anticipates the mixed C5 market will consolidate weakly.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. The overall tight supply situation for isoprene continues, with factories facing no inventory pressure. However, given crude oil volatility and downstream users focusing on consuming existing raw material inventories, prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a wait-and-see attitude.

Piperylene is expected to consolidate temporarily. Factories currently face no significant inventory pressure, while downstream rigid demand is limited, leading to cautious wait-and-see behavior. Therefore, the piperylene market is expected to remain temporarily stable.

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) is expected to consolidate temporarily. Downstream demand performance is average, but the limited spot availability provides support to the market. The market is expected to observe and consolidate today.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, terminal construction volumes in the far north may decrease slightly in the short term. Manufacturer spot inventories are scarce, and downstream users face restocking needs, resulting in low willingness from manufacturers to offer discounts; negotiated prices tend to be firm. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, supply gaps persist despite the peak season, and overall available volume is minimal. Prices may continue to rise after the holiday.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)