I. Key Focus Points
① Oct 7: Communication channels for US-Iran negotiations remain active, combined with the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI November futures closed at $88.28/bbl, down $1.16/bbl (-1.30%); ICE Brent December futures closed at $100.20/bbl, down $0.38/bbl (-0.38%). China INE crude oil futures were suspended due to the National Day holiday.
② Cost Support Remains Adequate: During the holiday, propylene feedstock prices remained elevated and stable, while liquid chlorine rebounded. Cost support is adequate, though crude oil fluctuations are influencing market sentiment.
③ Downstream Follows Suitably: On the demand side, normal trading continued in northern regions during the holiday, while southern markets relied primarily on contract executions. Upstream price increases during the mid-holiday period led to decent prior purchasing activity.
Core Logic: The market trended downward then upward during the holiday. Driven by rising raw material costs, low-end prices rebounded. After returning to higher levels, the market slowed into consolidation as participants await post-holiday feedback from various sectors.
II. Price Table
| Product | Market Name | 2026/09/29 | 2026/09/30 | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | Shandong | 9740 | 9740 | 0 | 0% | CNY/ton |
| Liquid Chlorine | Shandong | 50 | 100 | 50 | 100% | CNY/ton |
| Propylene Oxide (PO) | Shandong | 10800 | 10700 | -100 | -0.93% | CNY/ton |
| Soft Block Polyether | Shandong | 11300 | 11300 | 0 | 0% | CNY/ton |
| Propylene Glycol (PG) | Shandong | 8900 | 9000 | 100 | 1.12% | CNY/ton |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5200 | 5300 | 100 | 1.92% | CNY/ton |
| Propylene Glycol Methyl Ether | East China | 11700 | 11700 | 0 | 0% | CNY/ton |
III. Data Table
Propylene Oxide Industry Supply & Demand Data (Unit: 10k tons, CNY/ton)
| Data Type | Oct 1 | Sep 24 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PO Weekly Output | 13.71 | 13.06 | 4.98% | ↗ |
| PO Weekly Operating Rate | 73.19% | 69.71% | 3.48% | ↗ |
| PO Chlorohydrin Process Weekly Profit | -347.98 | -17.26 | -1916.11% | ↘ |
IV. Market Outlook
During the National Day holiday, the domestic propylene oxide (PO) market adjusted with an initial decline followed by a rise. On the first day of the holiday, the market dropped significantly to lower levels, prompting some downstream follow-up purchases. Subsequently, driven by strong upward pressure from raw materials, prices rose consecutively. Currently, momentum has weakened slightly, leading to a pause and wait-and-see attitude. Most operating plants are running normally, with inventory levels remaining moderate to low. Raw materials such as propylene and liquid chlorine are consolidating at high levels, providing certain support. However, after gradual downstream follow-ups during the holiday, caution prevails regarding current high prices. On the first day after the holiday, all parties are focusing on end-user feedback.
Comments
0