I. Key Focus Points
① On October 9, both the U.S. and Iran indicated that negotiations were ongoing, easing market concerns; however, hurricane-related disruptions to U.S. crude oil production continued, driving international oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI crude futures (November contract) closed at $91.85/bbl, up $0.36/bbl (+0.39% WoW); ICE Brent crude futures (December contract) closed at $104.72/bbl, up $0.44/bbl (+0.42% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (November 2026 contract) rose by CNY 3.9 to CNY 741.3/bbl in the day session but fell by CNY 1.5 to CNY 739.8/bbl in the night session.
② Cost-side support remains robust: Feedstock propylene prices continued to rise from high levels, and liquid chlorine also saw upward movement. Cost support is adequate, while crude oil volatility influences market sentiment.
③ Partial downstream follow-through: Downstream demand is watching the strength of propylene closely. Most buyers are maintaining a certain level of procurement, though some have reduced volumes slightly, leading to increased cautious sentiment in the market.
Core Logic: The market has temporarily stabilized after recent gains. Strong feedstock propylene provides ongoing support, while downstream buyers maintain cautious purchasing and wait-and-see attitudes.
II. Price List
| Product | Market | 2026/10/09 | 2026/10/10 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | Shandong | 10,295 | 10,550 | +255 | +2.48% | CNY/ton |
| Liquid Chlorine | Shandong | 250 | 300 | +50 | +20% | CNY/ton |
| Propylene Oxide | Shandong | 11,200 | 11,300 | +100 | +0.89% | CNY/ton |
| Flexible Polyether Foam | Shandong | 11,900 | 12,100 | +200 | +1.68% | CNY/ton |
| Propylene Glycol | Shandong | 9,250 | 9,275 | +25 | +0.27% | CNY/ton |
| Dimethyl Carbonate | Shandong | 5,525 | 5,575 | +50 | +0.9% | CNY/ton |
| Propylene Glycol Methyl Ether | East China | 11,800 | 11,800 | 0 | 0% | CNY/ton |
III. Data Table
Propylene Oxide Industry Supply/Demand Data (Unit: 10,000 tons, CNY/ton)
| Data Type | Oct 8 | Oct 1 | Change Rate | This Week's Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly PO Production | 13.85 | 13.71 | +1.02% | ↘ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | 73.93% | 73.19% | +0.74% | ↘ |
| Weekly Profit for Chlorohydrin Process PO | -565.25 | -347.98 | -62.44% | → |
IV. Market Outlook
Yesterday, the domestic propylene oxide (PO) market consolidated after recent price increases. Supply-side units remained largely stable, with potential short-term reductions in output expected for individual plants this week. Sales activity at higher price points was somewhat sluggish, but pressure remains low and manageable. Meanwhile, feedstock propylene continued to surge, preventing the spread between PO and propylene prices from widening significantly, thus sustaining cost support. Some downstream buyers slightly reduced their procurement volumes but remain watchful of propylene trends, maintaining a baseline level of purchases. Various market participants are adjusting cautiously, awaiting guidance from news and fundamentals.
V. Data Calendar
| Data Indicator | Release Date | Previous Period | Expected Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly PO Capacity Utilization Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 73.93% | ↘ |
| Weekly Polyether Polyol Capacity Utilization Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 50.00% | → |
| Weekly Propylene Glycol Capacity Utilization Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 54.85% | ↗ |
| Note 1: ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation (highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%). | |||
| Note 2: ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation (highlighting data with changes within 0–3%). |
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