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Weekly Outlook for the Ethanol Market

Published on 2026-09-21

I. Key Points

  1. September 18: International crude oil prices fell due to improved expectations for the repair of Saudi Arabian pipelines and signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. The NYMEX October WTI futures contract closed at $100.3 per barrel, down $1.61/bbl (-1.58% day-on-day). The ICE November Brent futures contract closed at $103.87 per barrel, down $0.95/bbl (-0.91% day-on-day). The INE November 2026 crude oil futures contract fell by 50.6 yuan to 754.4 yuan/barrel during the day session and dropped a further 19.6 yuan to 734.8 yuan/barrel during the night session.

Core Logic:

  1. Food-grade Ethanol: Yesterday, regional price fluctuations occurred in the food-grade ordinary ethanol market, with prices consolidating within ranges.
  2. Anhydrous Ethanol: Yesterday, anhydrous ethanol prices remained stable across regions.
  3. Fuel Ethanol: Yesterday, fuel ethanol prices were stable, with local refinery procurement prices maintaining steady operations.
  4. Coal-based Ethanol: Yesterday, coal-based ethanol market quotes remained stable.

II. Price Table

Unit: Yuan/ton, USD/barrel

Chempricehub Ethanol & Fuel Ethanol Products Morning Report

Product Region 2026/9/19 2026/9/18 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI - 100.3
Brent - 103.87
Domestic Gasoline Guidance Price (89#) 8475 8475 Shandong
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 245-245 245-245 FOB, USD/ton
Delivered Cost Equivalent 1993-1993 1993-1993 East China, Yuan/ton
Corn (Plant Gate) Heilongjiang 2088-2140 2088-2140 Heilongjiang
Jilin 2170-2270 2170-2270 Jilin
Henan 2150-2160 2160-2170 -10/-10 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2226-2226 2226-2226 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Ordinary Grade Heilongjiang (East) 4900-5100 4900-5100 Corn
Heilongjiang (West) 5000-5150 5000-5150 Corn
Jilin 5100-5170 5100-5170 Corn
Shandong - - Cassava, Ex-factory
Shandong 5420-5550 5420-5550 Wheat
Northern Jiangsu 5650-5650 5650-5650 Cassava
Southern Jiangsu 5650-5700 5650-5700 Cassava, Ex-factory
Anhui 5700-5750 5700-5750 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 5700-5800 5700-5800 Molasses/Cassava
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 5000-5150 5000-5150 East/West, Corn
Jilin 5200-5450 5200-5450 Corn
Shandong 5470-5600 5470-5600 Wheat
Northern Jiangsu 5650-5650 5650-5650
Henan 5550-5570 5550-5570 Corn
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5700-5850 5700-5850 Corn
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5950-6000 5950-6000 Corn
Jilin (Standard) 5850-5850 5850-5850 Corn, mainly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5900-5920 5900-5920 Corn, mainly low-end transactions
Henan (Standard) 6150-6150 6150-6150 Corn
Henan (Electronic Grade) 6250-6250 6250-6250 Corn, no stock available
Northern Jiangsu 6400-6450 6400-6450 Cassava
Anhui 6400-6450 6400-6450 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 6500-6600 6500-6600 Cassava
Port Jinzhou Port 5350-5450 5350-5450 Ordinary grade, Corn
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 6100-6198 6100-6198 High-end price is delivered to Heilongjiang
Heilongjiang (West) 6100-6198 6100-6198 High-end price is delivered to Heilongjiang
Liaoning 6426-6426 6426-6426 Delivered price to Liaoning
Jilin 6349-6349 6349-6349 Delivered price to Jilin
Panjin Local Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Local Refinery (Delivered) 6100-6100 6060-6060 +40/+40 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5800 5800 Online starting bid price
Anhui Starting Bid 6010 6010 Online starting bid price
Henan Standard 6100 6100 Quote, transaction negotiable
Henan High-end - - Shutdown
Shandong 6180 6180 Quote, transaction negotiable
Hunan 6150 6150 Quote, transaction negotiable
Hebei 6300 6300 Quote, transaction negotiable
Hubei 6180 6180 Quote, transaction negotiable
Guangdong 6550 6550 Quote, transaction negotiable
Ethyl Acetate East China (Ex-work) 6450-6550 6400-6550 +50/0
MTBE Shandong (Ex-work) 7950-8050 7800-7850 +150/+200
DDGS Heilongjiang 2180-2210 2180-2210
Jilin 2260-2380 2260-2380
Henan 2300-2300 2300-2300
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang-Shandong 540-580 540-580 Ordinary Ethanol
Henan-Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang-Shandong 460-500 460-500 Ordinary Ethanol
Northwest-Shandong 270-310 270-310
Mengzhou-Chengdu 360-390 360-390 Return empty trucks are relatively cheap

III. Data Table

Data Type This Week Last Week Expected Trend
Cassava Ethanol Profit -518.8 -518.8
Corn Ethanol Profit -138.75 -138.75
Coal-based Ethanol Profit 300 300
Remarks: 1. Cassava ethanol profit refers to production profit for cassava ethanol in the North Jiangsu/East China market. 2. Corn ethanol profit refers to production profit for corn ethanol in the Northeast Heilongjiang market. 3. Molasses ethanol profit refers to production profit for molasses ethanol in the Southern market.

Unit: Yuan/ton

IV. Market Outlook

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable to slightly stronger in the short term. In the Northeast region, prices are stable to slightly stronger; contract orders are being shipped, concentrated pre-holiday stocking is about to begin, freight rates are rising, and delivered prices are increasing. In the East China region, prices are stable to slightly stronger, driven by essential demand from the chemical industry. Prices in Henan are stable, supported by essential downstream procurement. Coal-based ethanol prices are stable as orders are shipped. Fuel ethanol prices are maintaining a steady trend, with major suppliers ensuring supply.

Data Release Date Current Data Trend Forecast
Ethanol Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 59.19%
Ethyl Acetate Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 51.08%
Remarks: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.

Chempricehub Ethanol & Fuel Ethanol Products Morning Report

Product Region 2025/10/28 2025/10/27 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 60.15 61.31 -1.16
Brent 64.4 65.62 -1.22
Domestic Gasoline Guidance Price (89#) 7969 7969 Shandong
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 212-215 212-215 FOB, USD/ton
Delivered Cost Equivalent 1828-1856 1828-1856 East China, Yuan/ton
Corn (Plant Gate) Heilongjiang 1955-2002 1955-2002 Heilongjiang
Jilin 2010-2090 2020-2090 -10/0 Jilin
Henan 2200-2210 2200-2210 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2170-2170 2160-2160 +10/+10 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Ordinary Grade Heilongjiang (East) 4820-4830 4820-4830 Corn
Heilongjiang (West) 4850-4900 4850-4900 Corn
Jilin 4950-5050 4950-5050 Corn
Shandong 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava, Ex-factory
Shandong 5150-5300 5150-5300 Wheat
Northern Jiangsu 5300-5300 5300-5300 Cassava
Southern Jiangsu 5400-5400 5400-5400 Cassava, Ex-factory
Anhui 5350-5350 5350-5350 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 5650-5700 5650-5700 Cassava
Premium Grade Heilongjiang 4900-4950 4900-4950 East/West, Corn
Jilin 5100-5450 5100-5450 Corn
Shandong 5300-5350 5300-5350 Wheat
Northern Jiangsu 5380-5380 5380-5380
Henan 5230-5250 5230-5250 Corn
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (Standard) 5400-5450 5400-5450 Corn
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5450-5500 5450-5500 Corn
Jilin (Standard) 5500-5850 5500-5850 Corn, mainly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5650-5950 5650-5950 Corn, mainly low-end transactions
Henan (Standard) 5900-5950 5900-5950 Corn
Henan (Electronic Grade) - - Corn, no stock available
Northern Jiangsu 5900-5900 5900-5900 Cassava
Anhui 5900-5950 5900-5950 Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 6350-6450 6350-6450 Cassava
Port Jinzhou Port 5100-5200 5100-5200 Ordinary grade, Corn
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5200-5200 5200-5200
Heilongjiang (West) 5250-5250 5250-5250
Liaoning 5500-5500 5500-5500
Jilin 5400-5400 5400-5400
Panjin Local Refinery (Delivered) - -
Shandong Local Refinery (Delivered) 5250-5250 5260-5290 -10/-40 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5450 5450 Online quote
Anhui Starting Bid 5400 - Online starting bid price
Henan Standard 5800 5800 Hydrogenation of acetates
Henan High-end - - Quote (unit shut down on the 13th)
Shandong 5400 5460 -60 Quote
Hunan 5600 5600 Quote
Hebei 5600 5600 Quote, transaction negotiable
Guangdong - -
Guangdong High-end 5950 6100 -150 High-end, purity 99.9%
Ethyl Acetate East China (Ex-work) 5140-5200 5140-5200
MTBE Shandong (Ex-work) 4850-4950 4900-4950 -50/0
DDGS Heilongjiang 2030-2150 2030-2150
Jilin 1950-2250 1950-2250
Henan 2330-2330 2330-2330
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang-Shandong 280-300 280-300 Ordinary Ethanol
Henan-Shandong 100-200 100-200
East Heilongjiang-Shandong 330-370 330-370 Fuel Ethanol
Northwest-Shandong 260-270 260-270
Mengzhou-Chengdu 250-300 250-300 Return empty trucks are relatively cheap

Comments

0
  • Priya Kapoor 2026-09-21 20:07
    Crude oil's dip from easing tensions slightly pressures ethanol margins, yet domestic stability across fuel and coal-based grades suggests resilient downstream demand. With capacity utilization holding steady, I expect n..
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