What is driving China's m-cresol price surge and import substitution trend?

What is driving China's m-cresol price surge and import substitution trend?
China's m-cresol market has undergone a structural shift since the 2021 anti-dumping duties on US, EU, UK and Japanese imports, with rates ranging from 27.9% to 131.7%. This pushed import prices from around RMB 20,000/ton in 2018 to RMB 50,000-60,000/ton by mid-2022, before easing with lower feedstock costs. Domestic capacity expansion is accelerating, led by Haihua Technology, which raised capacity from 8,000 tons to 18,000 tons/year by August 2022. Global capacity is roughly 60,000 tons, with overseas producers Sasol, Lanxess and Mitsui controlling about 80%. China's demand reached 16,000 tons in 2020, driven by vitamin E (45% of consumption), pesticides (30%) and fragrances (10%), with domestic supply still falling short of requirements.