What is driving fennel oil prices in China's domestic market?

What is driving fennel oil prices in China's domestic market?
Fennel oil pricing is tightly linked to raw fennel seed supply, which remains structurally tight. Domestic fennel output was roughly 24,755 tonnes in 2021, down from 28,909 tonnes in 2020, and production is concentrated in Gansu (about 50%), Inner Mongolia (25%) and Shanxi (15%). Farmer profitability hinges on prices staying above 8 yuan/kg; current green domestic fennel trades around 12-13.5 yuan/kg, while imported material is 9-10 yuan/kg. With new crop arrivals only after July, near-term supply pressure persists. Demand is stable at around 20,000-22,500 tonnes annually, split mainly between food processing (15,000 tonnes), exports to Korea/Japan/Hong Kong (3,000 tonnes) and oil extraction (1,500 tonnes). Any weather disruption in key Gansu or Ningxia growing areas could push seed costs higher, directly lifting fennel oil production costs.