What is driving the recent price recovery and supply discipline in the sucralose market?

What is driving the recent price recovery and supply discipline in the sucralose market?
Sucralose capacity in China surged from 12,800 tonnes in 2019 to 29,300 tonnes by 2023, with CR3 rising from 74.2% to 80.2%. This oligopoly structure enabled coordinated production cuts in late 2024 by key producers like Jinhe Industrial, Kebang Bio, and Shandong Kangbao, effectively reducing inventory pressure. New capacity additions have slowed dramatically, with only Jinhe and Kebang adding 3,500 and 2,000 tonnes respectively in 2024. Export data shows renewed overseas restocking, with year-to-date September exports up 18.65% year-on-year. The market expects sucralose to accelerate substitution of aspartame following WHO's 2023 'possibly carcinogenic' classification, potentially replacing 25% of first-to-third generation sweeteners by 2026, creating a market opportunity of around 27,800 tonnes.