What is the outlook for cobalt carbonate supply and demand through 2030?

What is the outlook for cobalt carbonate supply and demand through 2030?
Cobalt carbonate sits at the center of a market that is structurally tight but undergoing rapid demand-side transformation. The 2016-2020 era of subsidy-driven ternary batteries pushed cobalt prices to 900,000 yuan per tonne in 2018. Since then, LFP's cost advantage and technology breakthroughs — BYD's blade battery and CATL's CTP — eroded cobalt intensity. Per-kWh cobalt consumption fell 45% from 0.22 kg in 2017 to 0.12 kg in 2024. Yet new applications are emerging: foldable phones use 40% more cobalt per unit than conventional models, while AR/VR headsets and AI glasses require high-energy-density cobalt-based batteries. Consumer electronics cobalt demand is forecast to grow at 5% annually through 2030, reaching 75,000-80,000 tonnes. A reasonable long-term cobalt price band is 250,000-350,000 yuan per tonne — above the 150,000 yuan cash cost of most producers but below the 2018 peak.