Why are tungsten prices rising while tungsten stocks fall, and what should holders do?

Why are tungsten prices rising while tungsten stocks fall, and what should holders do?
The July 2026 export data confirms a structural shift in China's tungsten trade. Exports of primary products like tungsten trioxide collapsed 84% year-on-year, tungsten carbide fell 70%, and ammonium paratungstate dropped 41%, reflecting the full effect of export controls imposed since February 2025. Meanwhile, advanced downstream products surged: unwrought tungsten export value jumped 264%, other tungsten products rose 453%, coated carbide tools gained 84%, and tungsten hexafluoride soared 815%. This scissors effect stems from three drivers: export controls blocking primary product channels, overseas premiums reaching extreme levels (European APT equivalent to CNY 1.79-1.96 million/ton, roughly triple domestic prices), and buyers shifting to processed goods outside the control list. For holders, the market is transitioning from volume-based to value-based tungsten trade.