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This by-product dependency creates a unique pricing dynamic: ammonium sulfate supply follows caprolactam and coke plant operating rates, not fertilizer demand. When main-product margins weaken, plants cut output, tightening ammonium sulfate supply regardless of agricultural season. Buyers should track caprolactam spreads and coking utilization as leading indicators for ammonium sulfate availability, rather than relying solely on fertilizer market fundamentals.
European buyers have already shifted purchasing patterns. Since 2023, many have downgraded from premium caprolactam-grade to cheaper coking-grade ammonium sulfate to control costs amid inflation and energy crises. This 'race to the bottom' means Chinese exporters competing on price alone face a double squeeze: CBAM erodes margins while quality premiums disappear. Product differentiation through granulation or low-biuret specs may be the only sustainable path.
The export price surge masks a structural problem: China's capacity reached 27.63 million tons in 2025, with 80% export dependence. The July 2026 export inspection policy adds CNY 30-80 per ton in compliance costs and 3-5 days of delays. This will likely widen the gap between premium caprolactam-grade and lower-cost coking-grade material, as buyers weigh quality against expedited shipping.