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Watch the substitution effect: when butadiene spikes push SBR costs up, tire makers often shift toward natural rubber in their recipes. This happened recently when SBR margins turned deeply negative. Track the NR-SBR price spread and tire plant operating rates—they signal whether cost increases can actually pass through to end users.
The import mix is telling—Russian material is price-competitive but often lower-spec, while high-end SSBR still comes from Japan and Europe. As China pushes green tire standards, expect SSBR import dependency to persist even as total SBR self-sufficiency improves. Track the ESBR-SSBR spread for margin signals.