【Introduction】: In the first half of 2026, the acrylic emulsion market exhibited an overall upward trend. Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East disrupted the global chemical raw material supply chain, tightening upstream feedstock supplies and rapidly elevating costs, which in turn drove a passive increase in acrylic emulsion prices. As the geopolitical tensions gradually eased, raw material markets retreated step by step, with demand becoming the dominant market driver.
From late February through March, prices of raw materials such as butyl acrylate, styrene, and MMA surged sharply, putting pressure on acrylic emulsion prices and driving them higher. The peak price for styrene-acrylic emulsion was recorded on March 10 at 7,950 CNY/tonne, an increase of 3,400 CNY/tonne from pre-Middle East conflict levels, representing a rise of 75%. The peak price for pure acrylic emulsion on March 10 reached 8,500 CNY/tonne, up 2,550 CNY/tonne from pre-conflict levels, an increase of 43%. However, downstream enterprises mostly consumed their raw material inventories to mitigate market risks, resulting in poor pass-through of high prices. New orders for acrylic emulsion were limited, and prices gradually moved downward. By mid-year, Middle East geopolitical risks had eased, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened. The raw material market continued to decline, fostering a pessimistic market sentiment. Acrylic emulsion plants and holders offered flexible quotes and actively increased sales volumes. With the onset of high temperatures and the rainy season in some regions, downstream coatings companies showed low willingness to purchase, mostly buying only for immediate needs. Demand performance was weak, and emulsion prices fluctuated downward. In the first half of the year, acrylic emulsion prices rose compared to the same period in 2025, with styrene-acrylic emulsion and pure acrylic emulsion markets increasing by 6% and 5%, respectively.
In the first half of 2026, no new acrylic emulsion capacity was added. Looking at specific production data, the Middle East geopolitical risks in H1 drove continuous price increases for upstream raw materials such as styrene, butyl acrylate, MMA, and specialty esters. Cost pressure intensified sharply. Moreover, as the Chinese New Year had just passed, downstream enterprises had not yet fully resumed operations. To avoid cost risks, acrylic emulsion plants maintained extremely low operating rates in February and March. In April, the raw material supply issues triggered by the Middle East geopolitical risks gradually eased, and downstream demand improved. Acrylic emulsion plants increased operating rates to fulfill earlier and existing orders. In June, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, raw material prices fluctuated downward. However, as some regions entered the traditional rainy season, downstream demand was insufficient, and emulsion plant capacity utilization remained at a low level. Overall, the capacity utilization rate for acrylic emulsion in H1 2026 was approximately 32%, showing a decreasing trend compared to H1 2025.
The Middle East geopolitical factor essentially persisted throughout the first half of the year. Prices of raw materials—styrene, butyl acrylate, and MMA—fluctuated significantly. In H1, the high-low price spreads for these three major raw materials were 5,390 CNY/tonne, 6,550 CNY/tonne, and 6,000 CNY/tonne, respectively. During February and March, high cost pressure supported the mindset of acrylic emulsion plants and holders, leading to higher offer levels. As Middle East geopolitical risks eased, the raw material market gradually declined. In April, supported by a slight boost in demand, acrylic emulsion prices slowly retreated. As of June 30, the average annual price of styrene was 8,888 CNY/tonne, up 11% year-on-year; the average price of butyl acrylate was 9,133 CNY/tonne, up 5%; the price of pure acrylic emulsion was 7,075 CNY/tonne, up 5%; and the price of styrene-acrylic emulsion was 5,879 CNY/tonne, up 6%. The cost of pure acrylic emulsion was 7,024 CNY/tonne, up 4% year-on-year; the theoretical production cost of styrene-acrylic emulsion was 5,825 CNY/tonne, up 6%; the theoretical profit for pure acrylic emulsion was 51.22 CNY/tonne, up 442% year-on-year; and the theoretical production profit for styrene-acrylic emulsion was 54.11 CNY/tonne, up 374% year-on-year.
In the second half of 2026, no new production capacity is expected to come online. A 400,000-tonne/year acrylic emulsion plant in Shaanxi Yulin is anticipated to start up in early 2027. As the market fundamentals gradually stabilize, acrylic emulsion plants will progressively increase and stabilize capacity utilization rates. Production volumes are expected to increase month by month in H2.
In summary, short-term cost support has been the main factor driving price fluctuations in acrylic emulsion. Currently, the instability of Middle East geopolitical risks remains high, creating uncertainty in raw material market trends. Markets for butyl acrylate, styrene, and MMA are likely to operate within narrow ranges. As supply and demand continue to contend, the expected fluctuation range for acrylic emulsion prices is limited.
It is anticipated that in H2, cost and supply-demand dynamics will jointly drive the acrylic emulsion market, leading to a narrower price fluctuation range. From a macro market perspective, although Middle East geopolitical risks persist, domestic commodity markets are showing increasing resilience against risks. The expected fluctuation range for raw material prices is narrowing, and the impact of cost on the acrylic emulsion market is diminishing. Historical data suggest that September–October is the traditional peak season for the acrylic emulsion industry, with downstream demand gradually increasing. By the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4, the acrylic emulsion market is expected to see relatively strong production and sales. Overall, the market price of styrene-acrylic emulsion is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4,800–6,800 CNY/tonne, while the price of pure acrylic emulsion is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6,600–8,200 CNY/tonne. Market participants should be alert to the impact of unforeseen macroeconomic force majeure events on raw material markets.
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