After last week’s rapid price surge in acrylonitrile, the market began to decline quickly this week. Currently, the ex-works price in the Shandong market has dropped to 10,000–10,200 yuan/ton, down 600–700 yuan/ton from the same period last week. The immediate driver behind the earlier sharp price increase was tight spot supply. However, as supply gradually recovers, firm demand buying subsides, and raw material costs continue to fall, the overall market sentiment has turned bearish, and the acrylonitrile spot market is expected to continue trending lower in the short term.

Looking at the current downward trend, the pace of decline differs between the southern and northern markets once again. In the Shandong market, the successful restart of the CNPC Liaohe (Changle) facility has increased supply expectations, while spot buying in the region has also declined notably compared with last week. As bearish sentiment grows, downstream users’ purchasing willingness has declined as well. In the East China market, prices are also moving lower in a volatile pattern, but the decline is relatively limited compared with Shandong. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant in the region is still gradually restarting and has not yet released supply, while Sierbang (Spole) Petrochemical plans to run only one 260,000-ton acrylonitrile unit from July to August. Therefore, overall supply in East China remains relatively limited.

This week, the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has risen to over 70%. As Sinochem Quanzhou gradually resumes normal operation and Sierbang (Spole) and Tianchen Qixiang undergo planned maintenance shutdowns, the industry capacity utilization rate is expected to remain around 72%. At the same time, overall downstream demand is weak. Operating rates for ABS and acrylamide are both below 60%, and the acrylic fiber industry's operating rate has also declined to around 70%. There is no clear sign of demand improvement in the near term, so the acrylonitrile market fundamentals remain weak.

Additionally, the recent sharp decline in propylene prices has widened the price gap with acrylonitrile to over 3,000 yuan/ton. Theoretical calculations show that the production profit for a single acrylonitrile unit has already exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. This significant recovery in production margins, on the one hand, may lead to variable increases in supply, and on the other hand, has already affected market sentiment. Buyers are showing strong resistance to current acrylonitrile prices, further pushing spot negotiation prices lower.

Overall, acrylonitrile prices are expected to continue their downward trend. Market negotiations are likely to fall to 9,500–10,000 yuan/ton next week, and further declines cannot be ruled out in the longer term. During this period, attention should still be paid to changes in supply conditions and the direction of upstream propylene prices.