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The spread widening is real, but sustainability depends on ABS demand recovery. AN's largest downstream, ABS resin, faces its own cost squeeze—styrene fell while butadiene stayed flat, creating a tug-of-war. Watch July ABS inventory drawdowns below 210,000 mt as a leading indicator for AN price support.
Buyers should reassess contract terms with Japanese suppliers now. The four-year transition period Asahi announced is generous, but downstream ABS and acrylic fiber producers need to qualify alternative sources well before 2030. Korean and Chinese grades may require re-certification for carbon fiber precursor applications, where purity specs are stringent.