In recent years, as the acrylonitrile (ACN) industry in China has continued to expand capacity, the market has entered a cycle of oversupply. Simultaneously, major consumption regions have gradually reached resource saturation, leading to a year-on-year decline in cross-regional cargo circulation volumes. However, in 2026, despite the backdrop of persistent oversupply, differences in consumption sector distribution across regions and adjustments in regional supply-demand dynamics have resulted in differentiated trends. Consequently, cross-regional resource circulation has shown phased growth, with spot resources flowing from Shandong to East China increasing significantly this year.
From the perspective of provincial supply and demand structures, China’s major ACN production and consumption regions largely overlap. Due to mismatches in supply and demand development in recent years, key consumption hubs such as Jiangsu and Shandong have also reached resource saturation, necessitating the export of surplus resources. Beyond domestic sales to other regions, a considerable portion of East China’s surplus is exported overseas. Additionally, some regions, such as Henan, currently face supply gaps and rely on procurement from neighboring areas.
In 2026, China’s ACN trade pattern generally remains oriented from east to west and north to south. Compared to 2025, there has been an increase in resource flow from Shandong southward to Jiangsu. The Northeast region primarily absorbs its own output internally, with only small quantities exported to North China and surrounding Shandong areas. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai (Jiangzhehu) region, new capacities have been released in both supply and demand sectors in recent years, resulting in inter-regional resource exchange. This trade is predominantly conducted via coastal shipping, with some resources also shipped to the Northeast and South China directions. Since 2022, Shandong has shifted to a state of supply exceeding demand, with surplus resources flowing out to neighboring provinces such as Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu.
Entering 2026, the East China region faces limited flexible spot resources due to high contract procurement ratios among downstream enterprises (primarily large ABS consumers) and prolonged production restrictions at major local ACN plants, which has alleviated oversupply pressure. In contrast, Shandong is the most active region for spot resource circulation, with local plants maintaining operating rates above 90% this year. Meanwhile, major plants in East China have operated at load rates of only around 60%. As a result, ACN resources in Shandong have exhibited overall oversupply in 2026, particularly after Sinopec Tianjin commissioned its new 130,000-ton annual capacity in September, which further suppressed resource digestion in the Shandong market.
The Shandong market served as a price trough for spot goods in 2026, maintaining a significant price gap of over RMB 300/ton compared to the East China market for an extended period, thereby stimulating resource flow between the two regions. Furthermore, intermittent tightening of overseas supply in 2026 led to a notable expansion in export volumes. This prompted exporters to procure low-priced spot resources in Shandong and transport them by truck to Jiangsu ports for consolidated export, further boosting circulation volumes from Shandong to East China.
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