Lead-in: During the National Day holiday, domestic markets were closed. International crude oil prices retreated from highs due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and news of G7 strategic reserve releases, while most Asian aromatic spot prices strengthened. In Shandong, gasoline and aromatic spot prices declined slightly. Refineries did not balance production with sales, but pre-holiday presales were strong, resulting in low inventory pressure. After the holiday, domestic markets will see a correction in the price gap between domestic and international markets, with trends primarily driven by crude oil costs and downstream restocking rhythms.
Table 1: Comparison of USD Prices for International Crude Oil and Related Products (USD/barrel)
| Product | Sep 29 | Oct 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 89.38 | 89.44 | +0.06 |
| Brent | 102.59 | 100.58 | -2.01 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
International crude oil prices fluctuated violently during the National Day holiday. Affected by US-Iran conflicts and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude surged above $102/barrel at one point. Subsequently, the G7 announced the release of approximately 100 million barrels of strategic reserves, Middle Eastern exports resumed, and Saudi Arabia significantly lowered its Asian selling prices. These factors eased supply concerns. By October 6, Brent had fallen back to $100.58/barrel, and WTI dropped to $89.44/barrel.
Table 2: Comparison of International Aromatic Product Prices (USD/ton)
| Product Name | Price Type | Sep 29 | Oct 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naphtha | CFR Japan | 878.75 | 913.875 | +35.125 |
| Toluene | FOB Korea | 1190 | 1215 | +25 |
| Xylene | FOB Korea | 1153.5 | 1182 | +28.5 |
| Benzene | FOB Korea | 1185 | 1189 | +4 |
| PX | CFR China | 1233 | 1273 | +40 |
| SM | FOB Korea | 1425 | 1412 | -13 |
| MTBE | FOB Singapore | 1139 | 1168 | +29 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The Asian aromatics sector showed a divergent pattern. Due to the Chinese market closure for the National Day Golden Week (October 1–7), domestic trading entities exited the market, leading to thin activity and restricted liquidity. Upstream crude oil initially rose then fell; news of the G7 releasing over 100 million barrels of strategic reserves suppressed oil prices, causing fluctuations in naphtha cost support. The performance of aromatic varieties was influenced by raw material costs, regional supply/demand dynamics, and inventory differences. Tight toluene supply supported price strength, and rising freight rates to South Asia led the market to anticipate a widening spread for Indian CFR toluene. Solvent demand in Southeast Asia remained weak, but seller offers stayed firm. Some producers indicated they might consider shutting down BTX units if the spread between aromatics and feedstocks became insufficient. Additionally, MTBE weakened alongside falling crude oil prices, with Singapore FOB prices retreating; however, some November shipment cargoes had already been secured in the Chinese domestic market before the holiday.
Table 3: Comparison of Shandong Gasoline and Aromatic Product Prices (CNY/ton)
| Product Name | Sep 30 | Oct 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92# Gasoline | 10093 | 9914 | -179 |
| Toluene | 8675 | 8625 | -50 |
| Xylene | 8526 | 8460 | -66 |
| Mixed Aromatics | 8500 | 8450 | -50 |
| Trimethylbenzene | 8606 | 8540 | -66 |
| MTBE | 8000 | 8100 | +100 |
| Raffinate Oil | 8240 | 7800 | -440 |
| Mixed C5 | 7380 | 7050 | -330 |
| Alkylate | 10300 | 10300 | 0 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During the holiday, crude oil oscillated at high levels, providing solid cost-side support. Although prices for gasoline and feedstock materials in the Shandong region declined slightly, downside potential within the market was limited. Overall gasoline production and sales were weak, averaging around 70% and failing to reach equilibrium. Meanwhile, refinery feedstock supply remained tight, leaving little willingness to proactively cut prices. Regarding facilities, Xin Chemical's unit experienced an unplanned shutdown.
Table 4: Comparison of Xylene Prices at Shandong Refineries (CNY/ton)
| Enterprise Name | Sep 30 | Oct 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dongfang Hualong | 8550 | 8500 | -50 |
| Qicheng Petrochemical | - | - | - |
| Zhenghe Petrochemical | 8500 | 8450 | -50 |
| Youtai Technology | - | - | - |
| Wudi Xinyue | 8553 | - | - |
| Dongming Petrochemical | 8510 | 8380 | -130 |
| Yatong Petrochemical | 8500 | 8500 | 0 |
| Dongying Qirun | 8503 | 8503 | 0 |
| Huaxing Petrochemical | 8503 | - | - |
| Jibo Petrochemical | 8830 | - | - |
| Yulong Petrochemical | 8750 | - | - |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During the holiday, overall production and sales for xylene at Shandong refineries failed to reach equilibrium, with average production-to-sales ratios below 47%. However, since some refineries successfully cleared inventory before the holiday, with presales generally covering deliveries through October 3–5, actual refinery inventories were better than the production/sales data suggested.
The domestic aromatics market is expected to undergo high-level oscillating adjustments after the holiday. International crude oil remains subject to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, carrying significant volatility risk that will continue to dominate aromatic costs. Rising USD prices for related Asian aromatics provide some psychological support to the domestic market. Local prices for gasoline and xylene in Shandong declined slightly earlier; with tight refinery supply and limited overall drops, plus constrained downstream rigid demand, there is insufficient momentum for a sharp rebound. Short-term movements are expected to remain within a narrow range. As the holiday nears its end, some customers have entered the market to restock, leading to a noticeable improvement in transaction volume. Key focus areas going forward include geopolitical news regarding crude oil, the intensity of downstream resumption and restocking, and the operational status of refinery units.
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