Benzene prices fall sharply as geopolitical premium unwinds and downstream demand stays weak

1. Daily Summary

Plant Status:

• Jinling Dongying (100 kt/a): Shutdown from Sep 28 to Nov 1.
• Jinling Dawang: Maintenance scheduled from Oct 22 to Nov 10.
• Shanxi Tianji: Operating normally.
• Jilin Xuyang Kangnai'er: Rotating maintenance from Oct 13 to Nov 6.
• Nanhua Unit 1 (100 kt/a): Operating at reduced load.
• Jiangsu Fuqiang: Planned maintenance from Nov 5 to Nov 25.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Price Comparison of Key Domestic Markets and Major Producers

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Market Dynamics] Following the high-level pullback in feedstock pure benzene last weekend, market sentiment remained stagnant. With Shanxi Tianji resuming production of qualified products, wait-and-see attitudes among some downstream users intensified as they awaited new market guidance.

3. Production Dynamics

4. Price Forecast

Chempricehub Information forecasts that the aniline market will remain stable. The spot cash price for North China aniline is expected to operate around 16,500 CNY/ton, while the acceptance bill price for East China aniline is projected to hover around 16,750 CNY/ton.

5. Related Products

Pure Benzene: On November 2, transaction prices in the East China pure benzene spot market dropped significantly, trading at 9,700–9,800 CNY/ton, consistent with morning predictions. The collapse of cost-side support was the primary driver; geopolitical premiums that had previously bolstered the market were rapidly unwound, exerting heavy downward pressure on East China pure benzene prices. Although port inventory levels in East China remained relatively low, expectations of a turning point toward inventory accumulation strengthened, causing holders' resolve to maintain prices to weaken and their willingness to offer discounts to sell out to increase. After early-month delivery obligations were met, procurement plans neared completion. Downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials was strong, purchasing pace slowed, and most buyers maintained only essential small-volume orders, gradually realizing negative feedback effects.