On January 12, the CFR Japan price of naphtha was $558.00 per ton, and the ethylene-naphtha processing spread was -$83.00 per ton, a decrease of $6.75 per ton month-on-month. PriceSeek's analysis of naphtha shows a long-short score of -1. The ethylene-naphtha processing spread decreased by $6.75 per ton month-on-month to -$83.00 per ton, indicating a deterioration in ethylene production profitability, which may lead to reduced downstream demand and exert downward pressure on the spot price of naphtha. Although the CFR Japan price of naphtha remained stable at $558.00 per ton, the narrowing spread suggests weak future demand, which is bearish for the spot market.

For polyethylene, the long-short score is 0.5. As ethylene is a raw material for polyethylene, the decline in ethylene production profitability may reduce ethylene supply, indirectly supporting polyethylene costs. Combined with the recent performance of polyethylene futures (e.g., the 2605 contract closing at 6,766 yuan per ton, up 64 yuan per ton), expectations of tightening supply have a slightly bullish impact on futures prices. However, it is important to monitor whether the deterioration in profitability persists, as the current change is limited and only provides moderate support.