According to customs statistics, in November 2025, China imported 235,200 tons of ethylene, up 0.03% month-on-month and 19.57% year-on-year. Exports of ethylene amounted to 74.89 tons, surging 190.05% month-on-month but plummeting 99.13% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative ethylene imports reached 2.5867 million tons, an increase of 32.08% year-on-year, while cumulative exports stood at 15,400 tons, down 79.04% year-on-year.

PriceSeek's analysis of ethylene indicates a bearish score of -1.5. The data shows that China's ethylene imports in November 2025 increased slightly by 0.03% month-on-month to 235,200 tons, with a significant year-on-year rise of 19.57%. Cumulative imports from January to November increased by 32.08% year-on-year, reflecting a substantial increase in domestic supply. On the export side, although November exports surged 190.05% month-on-month to 74.89 tons, the absolute volume remains extremely low (only 0.03% of imports) and fell sharply by 99.13% year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to November decreased by 79.04% year-on-year, indicating a worsening domestic supply surplus and relatively weak demand.

This situation is expected to exert downward pressure on ethylene spot prices due to ample supply and insufficient demand. Combined with recent ethylene futures data, such as increased open interest in the main contract and a downward price trend, the futures market is also under pressure, with expectations of further price weakness. The score of -1.5 reflects a strong bearish outlook, driven by sustained import growth dominating the supply surplus, while the marginal buffering effect of month-on-month export increases remains minimal, highlighting a significant overall supply-demand imbalance.