January 13th News — According to customs statistics, in November 2025, China imported 235,200 tons of ethylene, up 0.03% month-on-month and 19.57% year-on-year. China exported 74.89 tons of ethylene, up 190.05% month-on-month but down 99.13% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative ethylene imports reached 2.5867 million tons, an increase of 32.08% year-on-year, while cumulative ethylene exports amounted to 15,400 tons, a decrease of 79.04% year-on-year.
Chempricehub Analysis of Ethylene: Bull-Bear Score: -1.5
The data shows that China's ethylene imports in November 2025 increased slightly by 0.03% month-on-month to 235,200 tons, with a significant year-on-year rise of 19.57%. Cumulative imports from January to November increased by 32.08% year-on-year, indicating a substantial increase in domestic supply. On the export side, although exports in November rose by 190.05% month-on-month to 74.89 tons, the absolute volume remains extremely small (only 0.03% of imports) and decreased by 99.13% year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to November fell by 79.04% year-on-year, reflecting intensified domestic oversupply and relatively weak demand. This will exert downward pressure on ethylene spot prices due to ample supply and insufficient demand.
Combined with recent ethylene futures contract data, such as increased open interest in the main contract and a downward price trend indicating downside risks, the futures market is also under pressure, with expectations of weakening prices. A score of -1.5 indicates a strong bearish outlook, as sustained import growth dominates the oversupply situation, while the marginal buffering effect of month-on-month export growth is weak, highlighting a significant overall supply-demand imbalance.
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