How do production costs vary across Chinese polysilicon regions and what is the breakeven price?
Electricity is the swing factor—it's 30-40% of industrial silicon costs and even higher for polysilicon refining. Watch coal prices and renewable power costs: as solar/wind power drops to 0.24-0.28 yuan/kWh, it could lower the cost floor for new capacity. But near-term, the breakeven for marginal producers is around 45 yuan/kg. Prices below that are unsustainable long-term, but with 5 months of inventory, the market can absorb losses for a while.
