The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 can be summarized as "oversupply, declining prices, and industry reshuffling." It was a pivotal year marking a core shift in market dynamics from "shortage" to "surplus." Following 2022, 2025 represented a new round of concentrated capacity expansion. By year-end, 1.05 million tons of new capacity had been successfully commissioned, with the major incremental supply gradually released in the second half of the year. However, downstream demand failed to keep pace, causing the market to slide from a brief high at the beginning of the year into a stage of comprehensive oversupply.

1. Price Trend: High Opening, Low Closing, Persistent Gradual Decline
At the start of 2025, influenced by maintenance at some plants and delays in the commissioning of new units, producers strengthened their price support stance, pushing prices to a three-year high of around 12,000 RMB/ton. After the Spring Festival, downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials intensified, coupled with the successive commissioning of new capacities, leading to a price "plunge" and initiating a sustained downward trend. By year-end, mainstream market prices in Shandong had fallen to around 7,600 RMB/ton, roughly halving from the year's peak. The annual average price at East China ports was approximately 8,726 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%.

2. Supply Side: "Explosive" Million-Ton Capacity Addition, Market Structure Adjustment
2025 can be termed a "banner year for acrylonitrile commissioning." The sharp increase in supply was the primary factor weighing down prices. New units from giants such as Yulong Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Jilin Petrochemical were all commissioned this year. By year-end, newly added capacity reached 1.05 million tons, pushing domestic acrylonitrile capacity beyond 5.449 million tons, with a growth rate nearing 24%, setting a historical record. (Some data even suggests it may exceed 5.7 million tons.) Furthermore, the entry of four new enterprises, including Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Yulong Petrochemical, increased the number of domestic producers to 20. Industry concentration (CR5) further declined, shifting market competition from an "oligopoly" towards a "multi-strong rivalry."

3. Demand Side: Main Engine "Lacking Strength"
While upstream production surged, downstream "appetite" diminished. Although ABS, the largest downstream sector, also saw new capacity additions, weak terminal consumption in sectors like home appliances and a sluggish real estate market resulted in low operating rates at ABS plants, limiting their capacity to absorb acrylonitrile. In the traditional acrylic fiber sector, demand was under pressure due to reduced overseas orders. Although carbon fiber, as an emerging field, is experiencing rapid demand growth (estimated annual growth rate of 8%-12%), within the vast total market, it cannot yet fill the gap left by ABS in the short term. The latest data shows that acrylonitrile apparent consumption in November decreased by 4.05% month-on-month, indicating a further weakening of demand.

Acrylonitrile Market Outlook for 2026
2026 is highly likely to be a continuation of the difficulties faced in 2025. As the capacity concentratedly added in 2025 will be fully operational in 2026, while downstream demand struggles to grow synchronously, the market will face a more severe "supply-demand imbalance." This will be a brutal elimination contest centered on "who can survive."

Core Forecast: Prices to Further Decline, Industry Enters "Reshuffling Period"
1. Price Trend: Center of Gravity Shifts Downward, Low-Level Fluctuations
With the full release of new capacity, supply pressure will persist or even increase. Unless large-scale plant maintenance occurs or demand experiences an unexpected surge, a substantial price rebound is unlikely. It is anticipated that mainstream market prices in 2026 will fluctuate between 7,700 and 9,000 RMB/ton, with the annual average price potentially continuing to decline compared to 2025.

2. Supply-Demand Structure: Oversupply Pressure Peaks
The situation of oversupply will reach its peak in 2026, and industry operating rates may decline further. Industry capacity growth in 2026 is still projected to remain above 15%, with planned and under-construction capacities exceeding 1 million tons. This means more low-cost acrylonitrile will be seeking buyers in the market. Following concentrated commissioning in 2025, new ABS capacity additions in 2026 will decrease, and operating rates may remain low due to macroeconomic consumption factors. Other downstream sectors (e.g., acrylic fiber) will struggle to absorb such a massive increment.

3. Profit Outlook: Industry-Wide Thin Profits or Losses
Prices of key raw materials, propylene and liquid ammonia, are expected to show minor fluctuations compared to 2025, unable to provide strong support for acrylonitrile. The theoretical profit margins for mainstream producers will continue to be compressed, potentially remaining in a state of loss or thin profits for an extended period. This will force high-cost capacities (e.g., some older, non-integrated units) to "protect prices" by reducing operating rates or shutting down.

Key Variable Analysis and Recommendations
1. Monitor the "Export" Barometer: Since internal competition is inevitable, export volume will become the most critical data to watch in 2026. A significant increase in exports could temporarily alleviate the domestic downtrend. In 2026, with the establishment of export logistics for coastal integrated complexes like Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, domestic acrylonitrile exports to regions like Southeast Asia and India are expected to increase further. This will serve as a crucial "floodgate" to balance domestic surplus capacity. Additionally, with growing demand from the automotive industry (especially for oil seals, hoses) and oil-resistant products, acrylonitrile consumption by nitrile rubber will also steadily rise.

2. Carbon Fiber Will Be the Biggest Highlight
This is the most noteworthy variable for 2026 and the segment with the highest profit margins and fastest growth within the acrylonitrile industry chain. Carbon fiber precursor relies almost entirely on acrylonitrile; each ton of carbon fiber growth directly drives a ton-level demand for acrylonitrile. Driven by the trend towards larger wind turbine blades, demand for carbon-carbon composites in photovoltaics, and the burgeoning need for hydrogen storage tanks, the carbon fiber industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate exceeding 30%. However, carbon fiber has high requirements for raw material quality, typically supplied by premium products from leading producers (e.g., Sierbang, Jilin Petrochemical).

3. Beware of "Cost Line" Games: 2026 will be a critical year for capacity rationalization. Close attention must be paid to whether high-cost units within the industry (typically non-integrated, smaller-scale plants) undergo widespread shutdowns or maintenance. Only when these "competitors" exit the market can prices potentially stabilize.

4. Cash Flow is King: At this stage, pursuing high profits is unrealistic; survival is the top priority. It is advisable to adopt a "follow the market" sales strategy, maintain healthy cash flow, and avoid inventory accumulation and associated depreciation risks.

Summary: The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2026 will be a "tough battle." Downstream demand will be characterized by "sufficient total volume, but not enough to go around." Although carbon fiber and exports can absorb part of the new capacity, facing the weakness in ABS and acrylic fiber, and the massive upstream capacity additions often reaching millions of tons, downstream sectors overall will retain strong bargaining power. Acrylonitrile prices are highly likely to fluctuate around the "cost line," making significant profitable conditions difficult to achieve. Do not expect a substantial price rebound; be prepared mentally for a prolonged period of "bottom grinding" near the cost line. The darkness before dawn is often the coldest; enduring it leads to renewal.