Domestic Phenol Market: Post-Rally Pullback (Oct 12–15, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Sinopec East China raised its phenol opening price to 9,700 yuan/ton this week.

2. Domestic operating rates for phenol and acetone plants increased slightly this week. The Huizhou Zhongxin phenol-acetone unit resumed operations after a short shutdown, while the Yangzhou Shiyou and Guangxi Huayi units remain shut down.

3. Inventory at Jiangyin Port stood at 25,000 tons this week. Imported cargoes replenished stocks during the period; attention is now on subsequent shipping schedules.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Table 1: Weekly Price Changes in the Domestic Phenol Market (Unit: yuan/ton)

The domestic phenol market trended upward initially before pulling back. As of October 15, transaction prices in the East China phenol market ranged from 9,400 to 9,550 yuan/ton. During the week, raw material pure benzene prices fluctuated at high levels, with the negative spread between phenol and pure benzene persisting above 1,000 yuan/ton. Facing losses, suppliers attempted to push prices higher, supported by expectations of short-term shutdowns and reduced loads at certain plants, leading to an upward shift in the price center. However, cost support weakened on Thursday as end-user purchasing slowed, causing prices to correct from highs. Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a quieter trading atmosphere.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. According to estimates by Chempricehub Information, as of October 15, the profit margin for Sinopec East China's phenol-acetone integration was -1,389 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176 yuan/ton compared to October 8.

2. Based on incomplete vessel schedule data from Chempricehub Information, total phenol cargo arrivals in East China for October were estimated at 23,000 tons as of October 15. Attention remains on future shipping dynamics.

3. The overall capacity utilization rate for domestic phenol and acetone producers was approximately 81% during this period.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

The phenol market is expected to trade weakly within a narrow range next week. Raw material pure benzene prices are projected to decline amid volatility. Although the negative spread between phenol and pure benzene remains significant, recent phenol trends have largely followed pure benzene movements. With cautious procurement from end-users, phenol prices may face downward pressure. However, given the relatively high average prices, the downside potential appears limited.

Key points to watch:

1. Supply: Overall operating rates for domestic phenol-acetone units are expected to rise. Monitor start-up and shutdown activities at Guangxi Huayi, Yangzhou Shiyou, and Sinopec Tianjin Petrochemical.
2. Demand: Bisphenol A (BPA) demand is expected to see a slight increase. Downstream industries will likely maintain moderate purchasing, primarily focusing on restocking essential needs.
3. Cost: Pure benzene prices are expected to decline amid volatility. Considering the magnitude of the phenol-benzene price inversion, the bearish impact on phenol may be relatively mild.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Phenol Weekly Report.