I. Key Focus Points
(1) On September 30, propylene feedstock prices remained stable, while glycerol prices experienced a slight decline. The negotiated price for Shandong propylene was referenced at CNY 9,740/ton, and the negotiated price for East China 99.5% glycerol was referenced at CNY 9,025/ton.
(2) From September 28–30, the average price of Shandong propylene was CNY 9,755/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was CNY 117/ton. As of the close on September 30, the weekly average theoretical profit margin for epichlorohydrin (ECH) produced via the propylene route stood at CNY 1,472/ton.
(3) From September 28–30, the domestic ECH industry's weekly average capacity utilization rate was 44.8%, unchanged from the previous week.
(4) From September 28–30, the domestic epoxy resin industry's weekly average market capacity utilization rate was 49.42%, flat compared to the previous period. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 50.31% and 34.79%, respectively.
Core Logic: Cost support has weakened. Combined with sporadic small-order stocking by downstream users ahead of the holiday, producers and traders currently face no inventory pressure. New orders are primarily negotiated within existing price ranges, and trading sentiment has improved slightly.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 30 | Sep 24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 9,740 | 9,450 | +290 |
| Glycerol | East China | 9,025 | 9,075 | -50 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11,150 | 11,150 | 0 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Net Water Ex-Works) | East China | 14,800-15,200 | 15,200-15,500 | -400 / -300 |
III. Data Table
| ECH Industry Supply & Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Sep 30 | Sep 24 | Change Rate | Weekly Outlook |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 44.8% | 44.8% | 0% | ↓ |
| Profit Margin: Propylene Route (CNY/ton) | 1,472 | 1,167 | +26.14% | ↓ |
| Profit Margin: Glycerol Route (CNY/ton) | -908 | -1,167 | +22.19% | ↓ |
| Note 1: Capacity utilization refers to the ratio of actual output to production capacity, reflecting production levels. | ||||
| Note 2: Production profit margin is an industry-level metric reflecting overall profitability in mainstream regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average price. |
IV. Market Outlook
The ECH market maintained steady operations prior to the National Day holiday. Although raw material glycerol prices trended weakly with a narrow decline, the impact on ECH was limited. Downstream users had low interest in pre-holiday stocking, resulting in widespread market wait-and-see sentiment. However, holders focused primarily on fulfilling existing orders. With no supply pressure, quotations largely remained within established ranges, but actual transaction volume was insufficient. For the first trading day after the holiday, the ECH market is expected to remain cautious, with active offers showing prudence. Further follow-up on market trading dynamics is required.
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