Ethylene oxide prices remain stable.

1. Today's Summary

1. Oct 23: Ethylene oxide (EO) prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, some units have planned maintenance shutdowns, while operating loads for other on-site units remain stable, leading to a tightening of overall supply. On the demand side, major downstream industries face cost pressures, with market demand driven primarily by rigid needs. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices continue to rise due to limited available spot inventory, and downstream derivative markets are following rigid demand. Overall, support from both the supply and cost sides remains, so EO prices are projected to stay steady. Continued attention should be paid to changes in upstream and downstream sectors.

2. Oct 23: The port-side USD CFR Northeast Asia price for ethylene stood at $1,190/ton, an increase compared to the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Ethylene oxide prices continued their stable trend today. On the supply side, operating loads for domestic EO units remained stable, limiting new market supply. This was compounded by some units undergoing maintenance shutdowns, resulting in a tight overall supply. Major downstream industries maintained rigid demand, but new orders were insufficient, leading to cautious trading activity. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices continued to rise amid limited available spot inventory, while downstream derivative markets followed rigid demand. Overall, support from the supply and cost sides persists, keeping EO prices stable. Future developments in upstream and downstream dynamics warrant continued monitoring.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese ethylene oxide industry was 54.98%. As of the previous working day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene feedstock was 1,556.98 RMB/ton. Today's theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was 1,500 RMB/ton, a decrease compared to the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, some units have planned maintenance shutdowns, while operating loads for other on-site units remain stable, leading to a tightening of overall supply. On the demand side, major downstream industries face cost pressures, with market demand driven primarily by rigid needs. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices continue to rise; spot circulation volumes are insufficient, sellers primarily engage in pre-sales, and derivative prices remain strong. Overall, support from the supply and cost sides remains, so EO prices are projected to stay steady. Continued attention should be paid to changes in upstream and downstream sectors.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Feedstock): Currently, domestic ethylene spot circulation is insufficient, with sellers primarily engaging in pre-sales. Derivative prices remain strong, creating a positive atmosphere for ethylene inquiries. Ethylene prices are expected to continue rising in the next working day. Mainstream transaction prices in East China are projected to maintain between 9,250–9,400 RMB/ton, while mainstream transaction prices in Shandong are expected to range between 9,200–9,250 RMB/ton. Regarding USD pricing, the shipping market continues to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. However, PVC-related derivatives have limited ability to absorb high-priced imported ethylene, which may constrain USD prices. The USD price range is projected to be $1,160–$1,220/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Major Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are likely to remain stable or slightly stronger. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, may maintain stability. With some unit maintenance plans being implemented, on-site supply may slightly contract, though supply pressure remains manageable. Downstream consumption is proceeding steadily. Insufficient spot circulation in the ethylene market has increased downstream acceptance of higher prices, suggesting ethylene prices will continue to rise, providing cost support. Monomer producers are focusing on steady shipments with no significant willingness to offer discounts. Downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand, with cautious market entry and transactions negotiated based on volume. In summary, the main East China EPEG price is projected to range between 10,100–10,400 RMB/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical tensions keep crude oil prices running high, providing cost support to the MEG market. In the short term, MEG economic benefits have declined significantly, potentially impacting future supply. The market is expected to maintain a rebound trend in the short term. Tomorrow's East China spot self-pickup price is projected to range between 5,600–5,700 RMB/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)