Ethylene Tar Market Price Consolidation (Oct 23–29, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① The market is watching for the possibility of escalating tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the ongoing risk of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities.

② Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have agreed to consult on strengthening regional peace and security cooperation and will continue talks. Consequently, market concerns regarding short-term conflict escalation have eased somewhat.

③ Market participants expect that following the US midterm elections, there remains a possibility of brief, high-intensity military action against Iran.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Current Ethylene Tar Market Status: This week, ethylene tar prices remained stable at high levels with limited volatility. Supply was temporarily steady, with little change in production volume. Downstream carbon black demand weakened due to sluggish tire demand, leading to procurement driven primarily by immediate needs. Coating asphalt provided support through rigid demand requirements. High-temperature coal tar price comparisons formed a bottom-level support, but negative feedback from weak demand suppressed upside potential. In the short term, the market may remain in a stalemate; key focus areas include carbon black operating rates and coal tar trends.

3. Statistics Table for Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:

According to Chempricehub monitoring data, as of the 29th, Sinopec's ex-factory naphtha price for November 2026 is expected to adjust to 7,741 Yuan/ton, an increase of 691 Yuan/ton compared to the previous month.

International crude oil prices are expected to have upward potential next week, with WTI likely ranging between $97–$107/barrel and Brent between $110–$120/barrel. The core logic behind this forecast is that Middle Eastern geopolitical maneuvering has entered a window for diplomatic mediation, reducing the risk of large-scale short-term conflicts. However, latent US-Iran friction persists, Houthi disruptions continue, and geopolitical risks may fluctuate repeatedly, providing strong downside support for oil prices. Key points to watch include:

1. Supply Side: Shipping risks in the Middle East remain unresolved. Transit flow through the Strait of Hormuz is highly volatile, and tanker passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains at low levels, sustaining the risk of supply interruptions.
2. Demand Side: The global recovery pace of crude oil consumption remains weak. Some Asian refineries face pressure on operating loads, while Russian refineries are impacted by disruptions, reducing processing volumes. The peak season for US gasoline consumption has ended, seasonal tailwinds have faded, and overall demand remains relatively soft.
3. Geopolitical Situation: Before the midterm elections, the risk of major escalation in the Middle East has converged. Qatar and the US side are simultaneously sending signals for negotiations. Local conflicts between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continue, though post-election US-Iran friction risks remain. While Russia-Ukraine tensions show signs of easing, a ceasefire is unlikely in the short term, maintaining a geopolitical premium that supports oil prices.
4. Financial Attributes: The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in the near term, but expectations for a rate hike in December persist. Short-term dollar fluctuations will have a mild impact on oil prices.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: Looking ahead, the raw material coal tar market may remain in a stalemate, with limited fluctuations in new orders within the market. Downstream tire markets face significant pressure, creating headwinds for new carbon black order transactions. The market is expected to maintain a weakly stable trend for new orders.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to maintain a high-level but weak posture in the next period. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply Side: Coking enterprises are struggling to escape losses and continue to maintain previous production restriction efforts. Therefore, high-temperature coal tar output is still expected to decrease slightly.
2. Demand Side: With the downstream maintenance season ending, operating rates will continue to rise. Additionally, downstream deep-processing enterprises retain certain profit margins, keeping their operational enthusiasm high. As weather turns colder, downstream operations remain relatively stable, ensuring rigid domestic demand for coal tar remains steady.
3. Market Sentiment: Facing a dilemma where both rising and falling prices are difficult, downstream buyers are procuring strictly according to actual needs.
4. Inventory Side: Coking enterprises currently face no inventory pressure.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: Crude oil prices are expected to have upward potential in the next period. Domestic marine fuel markets will continue to face tightness in both raw material and finished product supplies. Wholesale prices are expected to continue oscillating at high levels, with the national weekly average price projected to shift slightly higher month-on-month. The mainstream wholesale transaction price for national 180CST tank delivery is expected to range between 7,200–7,400 Yuan/ton. The mainstream bunker supply price for National VI diesel is expected to be 10,000–10,800 Yuan/ton, and for marine light fuel oil, 10,050–10,800 Yuan/ton.

Next Period Ethylene Tar Market Forecast: The substitute product, high-temperature coal tar, is predicted to operate at high levels but with weakness. This implies that its comparative price support for ethylene tar will marginally weaken further, suppressing ethylene tar's upside potential. Conversely, international crude oil markets remain strong, providing cost-side support for oil-based byproducts like ethylene tar. Demand shows a clear divergence: The carbon black sector lacks positive support, with weak end-user tire orders and high finished goods inventories leading to cautious procurement and continuous price suppression by carbon black producers. Absorption capacity for high-priced cargoes is insufficient, making it difficult to revive the ethylene tar market. However, the coating asphalt sector maintains decent rigid demand with stable orders, continuing to provide baseline support. Considering the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, the ethylene tar market is likely to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern next week, with limited overall price changes. Actual transactions will mostly involve negotiations within this range.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.