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1. Key Points of the Day

① Inner Mongolia Jiutai (Tuoxian) maintained its ex-factory methanol price at 3,345 yuan/ton today; shipment status remains to be observed.

② Ningxia Changyi’s 600,000-ton/year coal-to-methanol unit began maintenance on November 1, with an estimated duration of 20 days.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Note: Image captions for Figure 1 and Figure 2 have been omitted as per instructions.]

Daily Commentary: Today’s methanol spot price index stood at 3,482.47, down by 27.49 points. Specifically, Taicang spot prices fell by 57 to 3,898, while Inner Mongolia North Line prices remained flat at 3,305. According to Chempricehub monitoring of 20 major cities, prices declined in 15 cities, with drops ranging from 20 to 145 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market sentiment was slightly weak today, with market fluctuations primarily driven by external macroeconomic news. Futures weakened during the day but rebounded slightly in the afternoon, as buyers entered positions on dips, leading to a stable yet strengthening basis intraday. Inland markets showed relative resilience against declines; apart from Henan, which followed coastal trends with significant drops, price adjustments in Northwest and North China were limited. In the short term, attention should remain on developments regarding the US midterm elections and US-Iran relations. Fundamentally, given manageable supply-side pressure and relatively low coastal inventory levels, the scope for further phase-wise corrections is expected to be limited.

3. Basis

[Note: Image caption for Figure 3 has been omitted as per instructions.]

In the afternoon, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) methanol futures rebounded strongly. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,526 yuan/ton, hit a high of 3,552 yuan/ton and a low of 3,371 yuan/ton, closing at 3,506 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from the previous session's settlement price. By close, open interest for MA2701 reached 915,600 lots, an increase of 7,400 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Production Dynamics for Methanol and Downstream Products

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today’s domestic methanol market sentiment was slightly weak, with volatility largely influenced by external macroeconomic news. Futures trended lower during the day before a slight afternoon rebound, as buyers took advantage of lower prices, resulting in a stable yet strengthening basis intraday. Inland markets remained relatively resilient; except for Henan, which saw significant declines mirroring coastal areas, price pullbacks in Northwest and North China were limited. Short-term focus should remain on US midterm election progress and US-Iran geopolitical developments. Fundamentally, with manageable supply pressures and coastal inventories remaining at relatively low levels, the potential for further short-term corrections appears limited.

7. In the medium to long term, inland methanol spot supply remains relatively loose, while coastal spot supplies are tight, keeping market prices oscillating at high levels. Key variables to watch include expectations for new capacity commissioning and import arrival volumes.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Survey of Domestic Methanol Industry Stakeholders

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Overview

Glacial Acetic Acid: Market prices continued to decline, with some plant prices cutting further. Overall supply increased, traders lowered offers, and downstream buyers mostly replenished based on demand or executed long-term contracts. Chempricehub predicts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to soften in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market experienced narrow declines. Early morning prices in key production areas rose due to strong cost support. However, environmental regulations hindered downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and holders actively discounted to clear inventory, causing market sentiment to shift sharply downward. Multiple plants reduced prices under shipping pressure. Chempricehub predicts that the formaldehyde market will trade weakly within a narrow range in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): DME market center gravity was unstable. Supply was ample; residential demand was steady, while industrial demand remained at minimal necessity levels. Traders held stronger bargaining power amid raw material fluctuations, and some holders offered narrow discounts to prioritize sales, resulting in thin trading volume. Chempricehub predicts that the DME market will consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes between 0-3%.