How is China's vinyl acetate supply-demand balance evolving through 2027?

How is China's vinyl acetate supply-demand balance evolving through 2027?
China's VAM apparent consumption reached 2.3 million tonnes in 2023, with imports of 355,000 tonnes up 25% year-on-year. The demand structure is concentrated: polyvinyl alcohol takes 48%, EVA resin 18%, VAE emulsion 14% and polyvinyl acetate 12%. EVA is the key growth engine, driven by photovoltaic film demand — each GW of solar capacity consumes roughly 800 tonnes of VAM derivatives. Domestic EVA capacity hit 2.15 million tonnes in 2022 with self-sufficiency rising from 49% to 61%. However, effective VAM capacity of 2.8 million tonnes trails a market size of 3.2 million tonnes, leaving a 400,000-tonne supply gap and import dependence around 12.5%. New ethylene-based projects will close this gap but also risk oversupply if downstream EVA and VAE expansion slows.