[Introduction] China's MEK market experienced dramatic fluctuations in Q2 2026, with prices peaking in April, accelerating downward in May, and stabilizing at a low level in June, exhibiting a clear three-phase pattern of first rising, then falling, and then stagnating. The quarterly price fluctuation reached 7,000 yuan/ton, the highest single-quarter amplitude in recent years. The market trend was primarily driven by multiple factors such as geopolitical impacts, changes in export volume, lagging cost transmission, and collapsing end-user demand, rather than being a simple result of supply-demand dynamics.

I. Deep Market Correction: Analysis of Three-Stage Price Movement in East China

Phase 1 (Early April): High-level consolidation, digesting gains

In early April, the MEK market continued the strong export momentum from Q1, with East China spot prices remaining at a high of 13,900 yuan/ton. Coupled with gradual drawdown of port inventory and little replenishment of domestic vessel cargo, intermediaries were reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping prices firm. However, downstream factories showed significant resistance to high raw material prices, purchasing only in small quantities for immediate needs, resulting in generally subdued trading activity.

Phase 2 (Mid-April to Early June): Sharp decline followed by bottom-finding and rebound

Entering mid-to-late April, persistently weak demand led to increasing sales pressure for factories. Holders' sentiment turned weak, willingness to offer discounts grew, and quotations began to loosen. Meanwhile, export inquiry sentiment cooled, weakening support for the domestic market, and the overall market entered a downward channel. In May, the decline accelerated, with major factories proactively lowering quotations to facilitate transactions. Downstream buyers generally held bearish views and showed low enthusiasm for purchasing, leading to a market with price declines on no volume—effectively a market with quoted prices but no actual transactions. In early June, as prices approached cost support levels, intermediaries' willingness to restock increased noticeably, a bottom-fishing mentality emerged, and the market successfully bottomed out, experiencing a slight rebound.

Phase 3 (Mid-June to Present): Market oscillating at low levels

In mid-June, as downstream phased restocking wound down, the market quieted down, with few transactions at high prices and insufficient momentum to sustain the rebound. The market has now entered a period of weak equilibrium after deep adjustment. Holders have expectations of reducing inventory at discounted prices, causing the negotiation focus to continue softening, dragging down regional price spreads and limiting the volume of transactions.

II. Diverging Internal and External Demand: Persistent Weak Domestic Demand, Exports First Increasing Then Decreasing

Looking at downstream demand, the purchasing volume from terminal industries in the domestic market shrank significantly. Some manufacturers mainly purchased for urgent needs, delayed replenishment schedules, had low acceptance of high prices, and lengthened procurement decision cycles, leading to weak market volume and pricing. On the export front, in April, major factories signed export orders smoothly with ample order volumes. The FOB Rotterdam price remained high at $3,200/ton, directly diverting domestic supply and altering the market's supply-demand structure. According to customs data, China's MEK exports in April reached 36,343.83 tons, a new high for the year. In May, domestic spot prices fell sharply, leading to a cooling of export inquiry sentiment. Overseas customers, with a "buy on rising, not falling" mentality, showed strong willingness to bargain, limiting new order growth. Although export volume remained high in May, its diversionary effect on the domestic market had become saturated, unable to offset the pressure of collapsing domestic demand, creating a negative cycle of falling internal prices and weak external demand.

III. Weak Equilibrium Hard to Break; Prices to Continue Downward Trend

Table: Summary of Key MEK Market Indicators

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Source: chempricehub Information

The deep correction in MEK prices in Q2 2026 appears superficially as a one-sided price decline, but in essence, it represents a structural reshaping of the industry's supply-demand pattern. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, China's MEK market will shift from the earlier export-driven model to a weak equilibrium pattern characterized by cost support and domestic demand competition. In the short term, supply-side plant operating rates remain stable, while sluggish domestic market demand restricts the market, offering limited support with no new growth drivers. Meanwhile, the price of feedstock raffinate C4 continues to decline, and the cost center keeps moving downward, leaving the market with no momentum for a rebound and loosening the price floor. In the medium to long term, whether the market can break the deadlock still depends on the sustainability of export orders and the recovery strength of domestic end-user consumption. In the absence of substantial positive support, the MEK market is expected to continue its weak oscillating trend, with further downside risk under the dual pressure of a falling cost center and weak demand.