At the beginning of 2026, the domestic acrylonitrile market continued its downward trend from the end of the previous year, with the decline further widening. The current price has also reached its lowest level since 2021, and due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, the market is still far from hitting bottom. As of January 16, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports was 7,200 yuan/ton, while the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market was 7,100 yuan/ton.

Acrylonitrile prices have fallen to a historical low, and production losses are gradually expanding. Looking back at acrylonitrile price data over the past five years, the price at the beginning of 2026 is the lowest for the same period, with a gap of over 2,000 yuan/ton compared to previous years. Currently, the ex-tank price at East China ports is around 7,150–7,250 yuan/ton. This downward trend began in early December and has fallen by 800–900 yuan/ton so far, a decline of 10.5%. Oversupply is the direct factor driving the price drop, as major suppliers face sluggish sales and are actively cutting prices to promote sales. At the same time, the prices of key raw materials, propylene and synthetic ammonia, remain relatively firm, leading to a gradual expansion of acrylonitrile production losses. Based on theoretical calculations, the raw material cost of acrylonitrile remains around 7,200 yuan/ton. For some producers sourcing raw materials externally, acrylonitrile products no longer provide marginal benefits.

The persistent supply-demand imbalance has increased inventory accumulation risks. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the oversupply situation in the acrylonitrile industry has become increasingly prominent. However, during October and November, industry inventories were kept under control as they flowed downstream within the industrial chain. Starting in December, supply continued to increase while demand decreased periodically. Additionally, some downstream users reached their inventory absorption capacity limits, while others showed weak willingness to build inventories due to year-end factors or contract negotiations. As a result, inventory pressure on upstream producers gradually intensified. Furthermore, considering the Spring Festival holiday in February, pre-holiday sales pressure in January has also increased, prompting suppliers to actively reduce prices to destock.

Changes on the supply side will continue to determine the market inflection point. In the short term, improvements in the supply-demand relationship in the acrylonitrile industry will still rely mainly on adjustments on the supply side, as there is no clear expectation of demand improvement. Major downstream sectors, such as ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, are also facing competitive pressures due to supply-demand mismatches. Among them, the ABS industry continues to incur losses, destocking in the acrylic fiber industry remains slow, and the acrylamide industry has plans for partial shutdowns around the Spring Festival. Even considering the periodic increase in pre-holiday stocking and low-price inventory building, given the current saturated supply of acrylonitrile, support for the market will remain limited and unsustainable. According to current information, there are few planned maintenance shutdowns for acrylonitrile plants in the first quarter. However, as losses gradually worsen, passive production cuts are expected to be implemented, and substantial reductions in supply will eventually drive the market toward an inflection point.

Market outlook: The domestic acrylonitrile market is currently weak and consolidating, with localized sales pressure and a fundamentally weak foundation. Additionally, there are expectations for further supply growth in some regions, and considering the periodic weakening of demand around the Spring Festival, the market is likely to remain weak in the short term.