Intense tug-of-war between high costs and weak demand; the acrylic emulsion market stabilizes after a recent rally

【Introduction】: Recently, raw materials butyl acrylate and MMA have stabilized after a price increase. Styrene prices surged rapidly after the National Day holiday before entering a narrow range of fluctuations. With costs remaining at high levels, acrylic emulsion manufacturers are actively maintaining prices, while downstream enterprises show weak willingness to chase higher prices, resulting in slight upward market movements. As of October 15, styrene-acrylic emulsion prices stood at 6,300 RMB/ton, an increase of 350 RMB/ton compared to pre-holiday levels. Pure acrylic emulsion prices were at 8,100 RMB/ton, up 300 RMB/ton from pre-National Day levels.

1. Raw Material Prices Continue to Rise, Providing Strong Cost Support for Acrylic Emulsions

Affected by recurring geopolitical risks, products across the industrial chain have remained stable at high levels. Inventory levels of both raw materials and finished goods upstream and downstream have stayed relatively low, increasing market sensitivity and amplifying volatility risks. After the National Day holiday, raw materials such as styrene, butyl acrylate, and MMA all saw price increases. Notably, styrene prices rose rapidly due to tight inventory, briefly reaching year-to-date peaks, placing significant cost pressure on styrene-acrylic emulsion production.

As of October 15, referencing the mainstream East China market:

• Butyl Acrylate: Market price was 9,900 RMB/ton, up 350 RMB/ton (4%) compared to pre-holiday levels.
• MMA: Transaction references in East China hovered around 13,150 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton (1%) week-on-week.
• Styrene: Prices in the Jiangsu market fluctuated frequently but remained mostly at high levels. Spot prices in Jiangsu were 11,155 RMB/ton, up 230 RMB/ton (2%) from pre-holiday levels, indicating strong cost support.

2. High Cost Pressure vs. Weak Demand: Upward Momentum for Acrylic Emulsions Is Halted

The domestic acrylic emulsion market trended slightly upward with fluctuations after the holiday. Butyl acrylate prices pulled back within a narrow range after peaking; styrene prices continued to rise but experienced increased volatility, maintaining overall firmness at high levels; MMA prices remained steady. Collectively, the cost side provided strong support.

Emulsion manufacturers raised their quoted prices due to raw material pressures, creating a tug-of-war between rising costs and weak demand. Enterprise operating rates declined accordingly. Downstream buyers adopted a cautious procurement stance, limiting purchases to small-lot necessities. This weak demand significantly constrained further price hikes, leading to only marginal upward movement in the emulsion market.

Market Data as of October 15:

• Styrene-Acrylic Emulsion: Reference price range of 6,100–6,500 RMB/ton, up 5.88% from pre-holiday levels. Theoretical cost was 6,565.2 RMB/ton (up 2.36% month-on-month), with theoretical profit at -265.2 RMB/ton (an improvement of 42.85% compared to pre-holiday levels).
• Pure Acrylic Emulsion: Reference price range of 7,700–8,500 RMB/ton, up 3.85% from pre-holiday levels. Theoretical cost was 7,457.5 RMB/ton (up 1.84% month-on-month), with theoretical profit at 642.5 RMB/ton (an improvement of 34.56% compared to pre-holiday levels).

3. Raw Material Markets Gradually Stabilizing; Acrylic Emulsion Market May Dip Slightly Before Holding Steady

Cost Side:

• Butyl Acrylate: As contract deadlines approach, some holders may actively release volumes. Supported by high costs, prices are expected to dip slightly within a narrow range.
• MMA: Suppliers may offer minor discounts to facilitate sales.
• Styrene: Supply remains tight, but transmission of high prices to downstream is limited. Market prices are likely to trade weakly within a narrow range.
  Overall, the raw material market for acrylic emulsions may weaken slightly, potentially alleviating cost pressures.

Demand Side:
Downstream users remain cautious about purchasing raw materials at high prices, with inquiries primarily focused on essential needs. Market transactions are dominated by small orders, and demand performance is generally average.

Supply Side:
Due to sustained pressure from raw material prices this week, some acrylic emulsion plants have shut down or reduced operating loads, leading to a decline in capacity utilization. Next week, as the raw material market potentially softens, emulsion factories will focus on digesting previous raw material contracts, and capacity utilization may recover slightly.

Outlook:
In summary, cost pressures for acrylic emulsions may ease slightly in the short term. However, given the inherent instability of the raw material market, emulsion manufacturers are likely to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, focusing on volume releases. With downstream buying strictly driven by essential needs, the acrylic emulsion market is expected to dip slightly in line with raw material prices before stabilizing.