Maintenance of soda ash is gradually winding down, leading to an anticipated increase in future supply.

With the completion of maintenance shutdowns at soda ash producers, supply is expected to increase. However, individual plant stoppages and anticipated maintenance suggest that overall supply is unlikely to reach new highs next month. Downstream demand remains moderate, with purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs. Despite low spot-futures price spreads, transaction volumes have been healthy. Market sentiment is lukewarm, with weak intentions for inventory accumulation. In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate within a stable range, with some high-priced offers showing signs of softening.

Key focus points in the recent soda ash market include:

1. Soda ash transaction volumes and outstanding order backlogs.
2. The impact of high ocean freight rates on soda ash imports and exports.
3. Downstream inventory levels and operational status of consuming units.
4. Progress of maintenance restarts at soda ash production facilities.
5. Inventory levels at soda ash enterprises and pricing adjustments.
6. Futures price volatility and macroeconomic drivers.

As maintenance periods conclude, supply is poised to rise. Currently, however, some plants remain offline or operate at reduced loads, making full recovery difficult. With certain facilities scheduled for maintenance or shutdowns next month, total supply is unlikely to hit record highs. At present, daily soda ash output stands below 90,000 tons. Upon full capacity utilization, peak daily production is projected to reach approximately 105,000 tons.

1. Maintenance execution leads to lower operating rates