Market sentiment is under pressure, leading to a downward shift in the price center.

1. Today's Summary

① Recently, the liquid sulfur vessel MS DREAM is scheduled to call at Weifang Port. This vessel typically carries approximately 2,600 tons of liquid sulfur.

② National port inventory stands at 1.0912 million tons, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous period and a drop of 53.55% year-on-year.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Sulfur Port Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Using Zhenjiang Port as the benchmark, the mainstream granular price today is 7,075 RMB/ton, consistent with morning expectations. The trading atmosphere remains cold and sluggish. Holders are passively waiting for market trends to shift, while interested buyers continue to test lower prices, putting pressure on market sentiment and driving the price center downward. Due to a lack of new influencing factors, the overall trading environment within ports has not seen substantive improvement. Inquiries and offers remain centered around 7,050–7,100 RMB/ton. It is reported that discussions are taking place among long-term contract merchants, but it has become difficult to sustain previous price levels.

3. Market Sentiment

Table 2: Domestic Sulfur Upstream and Downstream Industry Sentiment Forecast

4. Price Forecast

End-user demand in the fertilizer sector remains weak. Combined with risks associated with relatively high price levels suppressing merchant entry into the market, there are very few potential buyers within ports, and those who exist are not eager to follow up immediately. Under this pressured market sentiment, future prices are expected to undergo downward consolidation.

5. Related Product Updates

Phosphate Fertilizer Market:
Taking Hubei region as the benchmark, today’s ex-factory quote for 55% powder is around 3,650–3,750 RMB/ton. The domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market continues to consolidate weakly with no change in prices. The central China 55% powder market price hovers around 3,650–3,750 RMB/ton, with transactions based on actual negotiations. Raw material sulfuric acid prices have continued to rise, significantly increasing costs and providing some support to MAP prices, preventing further declines. However, overall downstream demand remains weak, with compound fertilizer enterprises continuing to maintain small-volume replenishment based on rigid demand. Today, the ex-factory price for diammonium phosphate (DAP) at 64% grade is around 4,800–4,850 RMB/ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation. The domestic DAP market maintains its weak pattern, showing persistent lackluster performance. The phenomenon of inverted market prices (where raw material costs exceed product sale prices) is deepening, creating a strong bearish atmosphere. Industry confidence is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, low-priced goods frequently appear in industrial channels, and the overall atmosphere remains flat. Downstream procurement is primarily driven by rigid demand replenishment.

Sulfuric Acid Market:
The domestic sulfuric acid market is exhibiting divergent trends. In Zhejiang, market conditions are improving as major acid producers are undergoing maintenance, leading to a contraction in spot supply. Downstream industries maintain rigid demand purchasing rhythms, keeping acquisition needs stable. Post-holiday price increases in peripheral markets have transmitted positive sentiment to the province, strongly supporting local acid prices. Driven by tightened supply and external market momentum, regional major acid producers raised quotes by 100 RMB/ton today. Following early-month price adjustments in Inner Mongolia, demand in Eastern Inner Mongolia remains weak, and shipping pressures have not eased. Yesterday, major acid producers lowered their listed prices by another 150 RMB/ton, causing the regional price center to shift further down and intensifying bearish sentiment. Major smelting acid producers in Chifeng resumed production lines before the holiday, leading to continuous increases in regional supply, accumulation of factory inventories, and growing shipment pressures. Demand in Eastern Inner Mongolia is particularly sluggish; downstream parties mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude with weak willingness to take delivery, exacerbating supply-demand contradictions. Regarding peripheral markets, although acid prices in Anhui, Jiangxi, and Hubei have risen, the boost to the Inner Mongolia market is limited, as inter-regional price gaps are insufficient to drive improved shipments within the region. Overall, the domestic sulfuric acid market shows slight recovery, presenting a divergent pattern of "rising in the south, weakening in the north."

6. Data Calendar

Table 3: Domestic Sulfur Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)