The sulfuric acid market exhibits clear differentiation, presenting a "weak north, rising south" pattern (October 2–9, 2026).

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① The domestic sulfuric acid market exhibits clear regional differentiation, with an overall pattern of "weak in the north, stable in the south."

② The average domestic sulfuric acid price this week was 1,305 RMB/ton, an increase of 73 RMB/ton compared to last week.

③ Today's total sulfur inventory at ports stood at 1.093 million tons, with a reference price of 7,100 RMB/ton, unchanged from last week.

④ The capacity utilization rate for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) was 45.94% this week, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate for diammonium phosphate (DAP) was 41.85%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from the previous period.

2. Weekly Market Analysis: Price Trends of Three Types of Sulfuric Acid Production in China

Mainstream Market Price Table
Unit: RMB/ton

The domestic sulfuric acid market exhibited a clearly differentiated trend this week. Previously, prices in many regions fell to low levels, but some acid producers achieved good sales performance during the holiday period, leading to some inventory digestion. Simultaneously, after the holiday, maintenance shutdowns occurred at facilities in Anhui, Henan, Guangxi, Shandong, and other regions, reducing regional supply. Driven by this positive factor, acid prices in Central, South, and Southwest China rose this week, with increases concentrated in the range of 100–250 RMB/ton. In Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, the sulfuric acid market entered its monthly price adjustment mode. Due to persistently weak downstream fertilizer demand and limited supply reduction, the supply-demand contradiction became prominent, leading major acid producers to collectively cut prices by 200–400 RMB/ton. Overall, downstream demand has not significantly recovered, intensifying market bargaining. In the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is likely to maintain a regionally differentiated operational pattern. As of now, the delivered price of 98% smelter gas acid in Hubei is around 1,150–1,200 RMB/ton, up 4.55%/0.00% from last week; the ex-factory price of 98% smelter gas acid in Inner Mongolia is 900–1,350 RMB/ton, down 28.00%/26.23% from last week.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. The national sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate rose to 64.39%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.00 percentage points. No enterprises resumed production this week. Regions experiencing declines include: main acid producers in the Luxi area of Shandong entering maintenance; ore-based acid producers in northern Anhui entering maintenance; and main ore-based acid producers in Jilin, Northeast China, entering maintenance. Next week, it is expected that some acid producers in Guangxi will enter maintenance; acid producers in the Jiaodong area of Shandong will enter maintenance; and some units of main acid producers in Anhui are scheduled for maintenance. There remains potential for further decline in the national sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate.

2. Regarding key downstream industries: The capacity utilization rate for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) was 45.94% this week, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate for diammonium phosphate (DAP) was 41.85%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from the previous period.

3. Post-holiday, the sulfuric acid market shows clear regional differentiation, maintaining an overall "weak north, stable south" pattern.

4. According to Chempricehub data calculations, liquid sulfur prices in East China adjusted slightly this week. The reference price for liquid sulfur in East China was 7,295 RMB/ton. Based on this price, the raw material cost for sulfur-based acid is approximately 2,431.67 RMB/ton. Steam generated from sulfur combustion offsets some costs, but when including utilities, labor, and equipment depreciation, the total cost of sulfur-based acid is 2,334.15 RMB/ton. The current reference price for sulfur-based acid in East China is 2,000 RMB/ton. Among the three types of acid production, the profit margin for sulfur-based acid is -345.94 RMB/ton, for pyrite acid it is -156 RMB/ton, and for smelter gas acid it is 920 RMB/ton.

4. Sulfuric Acid Forecast

The domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to exhibit a typical pattern of regional differentiation and bargaining. On the supply side, main acid producers in Guangxi, Anhui, Shandong, Northeast China, and other regions plan to enter maintenance periods, raising expectations for regional supply contraction. The national capacity utilization rate may decline further. However, demand-side pressure is more pronounced. With autumn fertilizer procurement ending and winter stockpiling yet to begin, phosphatic fertilizer producers maintain high finished product inventories and operate at low load rates, making it difficult to scale up rigid demand for sulfuric acid. Regional trends show clear divergence. Central, South, and Southwest China benefit from concentrated maintenance and previously low acid prices, with strong market expectations for supply tightening providing support for local acid prices from main producers in Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi. Conversely, regions such as Shandong, Northeast China, and North China, which had higher previous prices, face downward pressure, with no short-term improvement expected in demand. Overall, the expectation of supply contraction and the reality of weak demand mutually balance each other. The market is likely to continue a pattern of weak supply and weak demand, with prices primarily fluctuating at low levels.