Morning Market Brief: C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Points

1. Houthi rebels attacked Saudi energy facilities, heightening market concerns over supply risks and driving up international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude futures (November contract) closed at $95.09/bbl, up $0.95/bbl (+1.01%); ICE Brent crude futures (December contract) closed at $106.06/bbl, up $0.37/bbl (+0.35%). China INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) rose by RMB 14.5 to RMB 746.5/bbl during the day session but fell by RMB 17 to RMB 729.5/bbl in the night session.

2. As of the 14th, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 1,000.75/ton, up USD 4.25/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at USD 106.19/barrel, up USD 0.94/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic prices for cracked C5 fractions remained stable among major enterprises, while blended C5 prices in Shandong saw a slight decline with average sales volume; market trading sentiment cooled noticeably. Today, private enterprises still face tight supplies of cracked C5 resources, leading to continued stable-to-rising prices, with little difference compared to major enterprise prices. In terms of downstream processing, low inventory levels of piperylene monomers and robust downstream demand support further price increases. Resin prices remain stable, though buyer interest is moderate.

4. The domestic market for cracked C5 residual liquid fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday. The gasoline market was consolidating, with a production-sales ratio of 86%. Blended C5, a substitute product, faced downward price pressure, though sales activity picked up slightly. Despite weak market sentiment, high crude oil prices provide support, and the cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to remain stable as participants wait and see.

5. Domestic piperylene prices remained stable and consolidated yesterday. Supply was limited, with transactions mainly fulfilling prior orders and only small volumes of rigid-demand inquiries. Market operators adopted cautious strategies. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from RMB 9,200 to RMB 10,300 per ton.

6. The domestic isoprene market was in a consolidation phase amid wait-and-see attitudes yesterday. Tradeable resources were limited, with transactions primarily involving long-term contracts and prior agreements. Market attention focused on raw material supply and changes in downstream prices. Mainstream offer and bid prices in East China ranged from RMB 14,000 to RMB 14,600 per ton.

7. Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) prices ranged between RMB 9,300 and RMB 9,600 per ton yesterday. Lower-end prices remained stable due to existing customers and prior orders, while some auctioned lots reached as high as RMB 9,950 per ton. Market supply remains tight, with no significant increase expected in the short term. Supported by rigid downstream demand, prices are likely to maintain their upward trend.

8. Mainstream prices for C5 petroleum resin used in road marking paints ranged from RMB 9,850 to RMB 11,000 per ton yesterday. Downstream users mostly maintained rigid-demand procurement due to relatively high resin prices. Producers face significant cost pressures and sustained losses in non-deep-processing directions, resulting in firm negotiating prices.

9. Mainstream prices for C5 petroleum resin used in piperylene-based adhesives ranged from RMB 11,800 to RMB 13,600 per ton, while de-cyclized adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 10,500 to RMB 11,200 per ton. Producers were mostly delivering against orders with limited spot availability. Stable rigid downstream demand supported steady price operations.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 prices rising; Isoprene stable; Piperylene stable; DCPD temporarily stable; C5 petroleum resins operating steadily.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked C5 prices are expected to remain stable among major enterprises, while private enterprise prices may see a slight rebound, with some approaching parity with major players. Major enterprise prices will likely stay steady. Blended C5 prices remain acceptable. Regarding downstream processing, piperylene monomer prices are expected to remain firm, while resin purchasing enthusiasm stays moderate.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market faces potential downside risks. Gasoline refineries have underperformed for several days, lacking motivation to sustain prices. Refinery sales sentiment for blended C5 is weak, exerting downward pressure on prices. Dragged down by substitute products, Chempricehub anticipates a downward trend for the cracked C5 residual liquid market in the near term.

Overnight crude oil price increases provide market support. However, since gasoline refineries have not met production-sales targets for multiple days, prices are expected to stabilize today. Although blended C5 sales sentiment is weak, crude oil support suggests that Chempricehub expects the blended C5 market to consolidate and remain stable today.

Isoprene prices are expected to consolidate at high levels. The overall tight supply pattern continues, leaving factories without inventory pressure. However, downstream key buyers lack momentum to chase higher prices, suggesting consolidation at elevated levels.

Piperylene prices are expected to consolidate at high levels. Factories currently face no inventory pressure, supporting firm pricing. Conversely, downstream sectors bear cost pressures and lack purchasing motivation, adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. Thus, piperylene is expected to remain stable at high levels.

DCPD prices are expected to continue shifting upwards. This rise stems from inherently limited supply, firm upstream raw material costs, and ongoing execution of export orders, keeping the market trending at high levels.

For C5 petroleum resin used in road marking paints, scarce spot availability and persistent cost pressures from producers clash with weak downstream acceptance of high prices, leading to stagnant trading and stable high-level negotiation prices. For adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin, transaction volumes remain high. Supported by strong cost-side backing from elevated international crude oil prices, negotiation prices remain firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Overview of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)