Weekly Outlook for the C5 Industrial Chain Market

I. Key Points

1. The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continues, compounded by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, elevating supply risks and driving up international oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (December contract) rose $3.44/bbl to $101.41, a week-on-week increase of +3.51%; ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) rose $3.94/bbl to $109.86, a week-on-week increase of +3.72%. China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 2.2 yuan/bbl to 723 yuan/bbl during the day session, but rose by 16.8 yuan/bbl to 739.8 yuan/bbl in the night session.
2. As of the 16th, Japanese naphtha closed at $976/ton, down $12/ton from the previous trading day; Singapore naphtha closed at $104.56/barrel, up $0.04/barrel from the previous trading day.
3. Last week, domestic cracked C5 prices from major enterprises remained stable, while Shandong mixed C5 prices dropped significantly, creating potential bearish pressure on cracked C5. However, robust pricing from private enterprises provided support for cracked C5. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels of piperylene monomers and strong downstream demand kept prices running high. Resin prices remained temporarily stable, with moderate buying interest.
4. Last week, prices for cracked C5 residual liquid declined in certain market segments. The gasoline market showed weak end-user sentiment, leading to inventory accumulation at refineries. Prices for homogeneous products like mixed C5 continued to fall. Despite the weak sentiment, high crude oil prices provided support, keeping some markets for cracked C5 residual liquid stable, though prices declined in Northeast and Central China.
5. Last week, piperylene prices were steady with a slight upward bias. Overall plant operating rates were low due to temporary maintenance at specific units, resulting in a minor decrease in output. Ample long-term contracts and pending delivery orders supported sellers' firm pricing stance. Downstream resin and curing agent orders were weak. Maleic anhydride pushed up curing agent costs, forcing price adjustments that faced resistance in transactions. Some curing agent plants halted production, adopting cautious raw material procurement. Supply and inventory conditions offered support, but weak downstream follow-through meant the market was driven primarily by rigid demand. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,300 yuan/ton.
6. Last week, isoprene prices consolidated at high levels. Plant inventories and output prioritized fulfilling long-term agreements and prior orders, leaving limited spot resources available in the market, which supported seller pricing. Major downstream SIS (Styrene-Isoprene-Styrene) quotes edged higher slightly, but the industry remained in a loss-making position, weakening willingness to chase high isoprene prices. Demand volume from other downstream sectors was limited; combined with shutdowns in parts of the curing agent industry, raw material consumption decreased slightly. Overall, tight supply supported prices, but insufficient downstream momentum and slight demand contraction suppressed further upside. The market remained largely sideways with a wait-and-see attitude. Mainstream bid prices in East China ranged from 14,000 to 14,600 yuan/ton.
7. Last week, domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) ex-factory pickup prices ranged from 9,300 to 9,800 yuan/ton. Lower-end prices stabilized for existing customers and prior orders, while high-end spot prices remained elevated, with some auction prices rising to 9,950 yuan/ton. The current tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, sustaining high prices.
8. Last week, mainstream prices for road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,850 to 11,000 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers maintained rigid demand purchasing due to high resin prices, while manufacturers faced significant cost pressures and continuous losses in non-deep-processing directions. Market transactions were stalemate-like, with negotiated prices remaining stable.
9. Last week, mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from 11,800 to 13,600 yuan/ton, while de-cyclized adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from 10,500 to 11,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers focused on delivering orders with limited spot availability. Additionally, continuously rising crude oil prices led to tight raw material supplies and small premiums, causing sporadic price increases.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 rose; Isoprene remained stable; Piperylene saw localized slight increases; DCPD rose; C5 petroleum resins operated steadily.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked carbon-five prices are expected to remain stable for major enterprises, with private enterprise prices maintaining firmness. However, Shandong mixed C5 prices are expected to remain weak. Regarding deep processing, piperylene monomer prices are expected to stay firm, while resin purchasing enthusiasm remains moderate.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to face downward pressure. Refineries have struggled with gasoline sales for several days, leading to bearish outlooks. Mixed C5, a homogeneous product, shows weak refinery market trends. Amidst this bearish atmosphere, Chempricehub Information forecasts a downward trend for the cracked C5 residual liquid market in the near term.

Crude oil opened lower, providing bearish guidance to the market. Mid-stream and downstream players in the gasoline market are mostly clearing inventory and waiting on the sidelines, reducing purchasing enthusiasm. Dragged down by end-user demand, Chempricehub expects today's mixed C5 market to run weakly.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. The overall tight supply pattern for isoprene will continue, with plants facing no inventory pressure. However, major downstream buyers lack the strength to chase higher prices, leading to expected high-level consolidation.

Piperylene is expected to stabilize at high levels. Plants currently face no inventory pressure, supporting firm pricing. However, downstream sectors are under cost pressure with insufficient purchasing motivation, adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. Piperylene is expected to maintain high-level consolidation.

DCPD is expected to maintain a firm trend. Short-term spot supply increments are absent, while downstream rigid demand will continue to shrink due to high costs. Under supply-demand dynamics, prices will remain high without decline.

For road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin, scarce manufacturer spot volumes and persistent cost pressures contrast with weak downstream acceptance of high prices. Market trading remains in a stalemate, with negotiated prices stabilizing at high levels. For adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin, transaction volumes remain high. Supported by strong cost-side backing from elevated international oil prices, negotiated prices are expected to remain firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)