Morning Market Briefing for the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Focus Points

1. Houthi armed forces continue attacks on Saudi Arabia; instability in the Middle East escalates supply risks, driving up international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil futures (November contract) rose by $1.89/bbl to $93.74, a month-on-month increase of +2.06%. ICE Brent Crude Oil futures (December contract) rose by $1.93/bbl to $106.65, a month-on-month increase of +1.84%. China INE Crude Oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 8.9 to 709.5 CNY/bbl during the day session, but rose by 24.7 to 734.2 CNY/bbl in the night session.

2. As of the 12th, Japanese naphtha closed at $1,006/ton, an increase of $34.5/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $106.3/bbl, an increase of $3.87/bbl from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday and today, domestic prices for cracked C5 from major enterprises remained stable. Mixed C5 prices in Shandong declined slightly with average sales volumes; market buying and selling sentiment cooled significantly. Today, private enterprises still face tight supplies of cracked C5 resources, with prices continuing to rise steadily within a narrow range. The overall price gap between private enterprises and major players remains small. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels of piperylene monomers and robust downstream demand are pushing prices higher. Resin prices have temporarily stabilized, though buyer interest is moderate.

4. Yesterday, the market for cracked C5 residual liquid maintained stability amid wait-and-see attitudes. The gasoline market weakened, with poor sales momentum. Prices for similar products, such as mixed C5, trended lower. Market activity was sluggish. It is expected that the cracked C5 residual liquid market will remain stable in a wait-and-see mode.

5. Yesterday, domestic isoprene (piperylene) prices stabilized temporarily. Downstream hardener manufacturers faced significant cost pressures, which suppressed operating rates and raw material procurement enthusiasm. Performance in the resin sector was calm, but factories faced no inventory pressure. Today, the market is running in a temporary stable, wait-and-see manner. Mainstream ex-factory prices are 9,200–10,300 CNY/ton.

6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market stabilized temporarily. Major downstream buyers lacked the strength to chase highs, and intraday crude oil prices fell, leading to cautious trading. New order negotiations were quiet today, with transactions primarily fulfilling existing contracts. Mainstream bid prices in the East China market are 14,000–14,600 CNY/ton.

7. Yesterday, the price center of dicyclopentadiene shifted upward, ranging between 9,300–9,600 CNY/ton. Low-end prices remained stable for regular customers, while high-end spot prices saw some individual auction prices remaining slightly higher. Crude oil and bulk commodities showed strength, and rigid demand recovered slightly due to the return from holidays. Raw materials remained firm, and limited supply of dicyclopentadiene continued to support the market.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin were 9,850–11,000 CNY/ton. Downstream users mostly maintained rigid demand purchases due to relatively high resin prices. Manufacturers faced significant cost pressures, and losses persisted in non-deep-processing directions. Market transactions were deadlocked, with sporadic price increases.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for isoprene-based adhesive C5 petroleum resin were 11,800–13,600 CNY/ton, and for de-cyclized adhesive C5 petroleum resin were 10,500–11,200 CNY/ton. Manufacturers focused on delivering orders, resulting in low spot availability. Downstream rigid demand remained solid, keeping prices at high levels with sporadic increases.

   Core Logic: Cracked C5 rising; Isoprene stable; Piperylene stable; Dicyclopentadiene rising; C5 petroleum resin steady with slight upward push.

II. Price List

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain (Unit: CNY/ton)

III. Market Outlook

• Cracked C5: It is expected that prices for major enterprises will remain stable, while private enterprise prices may warm up slightly, with some approaching parity with major players. Major enterprise prices will remain temporarily stable. Mixed C5 prices are acceptable. In deep processing, piperylene monomer prices will remain firm, while procurement enthusiasm for resins will be moderate.

• Cracked C5 Residual Liquid: The market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Buying and selling sentiment in the gasoline market has weakened, and transaction volumes for mixed C5 in Shandong are flat. Although terminal demand is weak, international crude oil prices remain high. Amidst intersecting bullish and bearish factors, Chempricehub expects the cracked C5 residual liquid market to fluctuate narrowly in the near term.

• Mixed C5: Overnight crude oil price increases boosted market participation. Yesterday, shipment atmosphere for Shandong local refinery gasoline was poor. With mixed market signals, Chempricehub expects the mixed C5 market to remain stable in a wait-and-see mode today.

• Isoprene: Prices are expected to consolidate at high levels. The overall tight supply pattern for isoprene continues, and factories face no inventory pressure. However, major downstream buyers lack the strength to chase higher prices, suggesting consolidation at high levels.

• Piperylene: Prices are expected to stabilize at high levels. Factories currently face no inventory pressure, providing support for holding prices. However, downstream sectors are under cost pressure and lack procurement motivation, adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. Piperylene prices are expected to consolidate at high levels.

• Dicyclopentadiene: The price center is expected to maintain an upward shift. Crude oil is running at high levels, and dicyclopentadiene supply remains limited. With export orders being executed, spot availability is tight, keeping the market running at high levels.

• C5 Petroleum Resin: For road marking paint applications, construction volume in the northernmost regions may decrease slightly in the short term. Scarce factory spot supplies and persistent cost pressures keep market transactions deadlocked, with negotiated prices stabilizing at high levels. For adhesive applications, supply is gradually recovering, maintaining high transaction volumes. Simultaneously, high international crude oil prices provide strong cost-side support, keeping negotiated prices firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)