Morning Market Briefing for the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Points

1. Market concerns over escalating US-Iran tensions and continued Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities have driven international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI crude futures for December closed at $102.78/bbl, up $2.88/bbl (+2.88%); ICE Brent crude futures for December closed at $115.32/bbl, up $1.44/bbl (+1.26%). China INE crude oil futures contract 2612 fell by RMB 9.2 to RMB 722.4/bbl, while the night session rose by RMB 15.1 to RMB 737.5/bbl.

2. As of October 28, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 1,046/ton.

3. Yesterday, domestic pyrolysis C5 prices from major producers remained stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices slightly recovered to RMB 7,400/ton. Residual liquid prices remain below those of raw pyrolysis C5. Some private enterprises kept their pyrolysis C5 prices unchanged. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels of piperylene monomer combined with strong downstream demand continue to push prices upward. C5 petroleum resin prices are supported by costs, but buying enthusiasm remains weak. Some enterprises plan to shut down ethylene units for maintenance starting December 5, leading to widespread wait-and-see sentiment regarding future feedstock supply.

4. Yesterday, most markets for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid remained stable or in a wait-and-see mode, with slight declines in a few regions. Gasoline market prices rose amid refinery inventory accumulation. Prices for similar product mixed C5 continued to rise. With limited bullish factors, the pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market largely remained stable and cautious.

5. Yesterday, domestic piperylene (trans-piperylene) prices saw partial increases. Feedstock constraints kept plant supplies low, supporting firm pricing. Downstream buyers followed demand-driven purchasing at lower price points, resulting in overall trading centered around essential demand. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from RMB 9,200–10,600/ton.

6. Yesterday, domestic isoprene markets consolidated at high levels. Tradable resources were limited, with deliveries primarily focused on long-term contracts and prior orders. Attention remains on export volumes and changes in downstream unit operating rates. Mainstream offer prices in East China ranged from RMB 14,100–15,200/ton.

7. Yesterday, domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) continued its upward trend. Ex-factory self-pickup prices ranged from RMB 9,900–10,400/ton, mainly serving existing customers. Spot market tightness pushed auction prices up to RMB 10,600/ton. Downstream buyers maintained essential procurement, keeping prices firm.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 9,850–11,000/ton. Temporary maintenance shutdowns reduced supply, while non-deep-processing sectors continued to incur losses. Combined with rising costs early in the week, these factors pressured prices; however, weak downstream acceptance led to stagnant trading and consolidation at high levels.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for adhesive-grade piperylene C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 11,800–13,600/ton, while de-cyclized adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 10,500–11,200/ton. Tight feedstock availability reduced operating loads and subsequently lowered supply. Low supply levels are expected to persist until year-end. Additionally, feedstock prices continue to rise modestly, passing cost pressures and shortages down the chain. Most downstream buyers are booking November volumes, suggesting short-term tightness will maintain steady-to-higher pricing.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 prices are temporarily stable; isoprene is stable; piperylene saw partial increases; DCPD rose; and C5 petroleum resin prices experienced sporadic increases.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices from major producers are expected to remain stable. Private enterprise prices held steady yesterday, and mixed C5 prices saw a slight recovery. However, residual liquid prices consistently remain below pyrolysis C5, squeezing separation profits. Therefore, cost support continues to rely on piperylene monomer and resin prices. While price transmission is pushing piperylene upward, downstream uptake for SIS and petroleum resins remains strictly demand-driven.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to strengthen. Amid Middle East conflicts, crude oil remains high, boosting gasoline sales. Refinery stocks of similar product mixed C5 are tight, driving prices higher. Supported by competitive products and firm feedstock trends, Chempricehub anticipates an upward trajectory for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid in the near term.

Overnight crude oil price declines dampened market participants' enthusiasm. Yesterday, gasoline prices rose but sales momentum was lackluster. Mixed C5 prices from refineries increased due to tight spot availability. Chempricehub expects mixed C5 markets to consolidate at high levels today.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. Overall tight supply continues to support prices, but main downstream buyers lack momentum to push prices higher. Persistent profit losses pose a risk of adjusting operating loads, so prices are expected to remain stable.

Piperylene is expected to stabilize. Plants currently face no significant inventory pressure, supporting firm pricing. However, with prices already at high levels, downward transmission faces resistance. Piperylene markets are expected to remain stable and cautious.

DCPD is expected to maintain a firm trend. Short-term spot supply shows no increase, while downstream essential usage persists despite high costs. Under this supply-demand tug-of-war, the upward trend is unlikely to diminish.

For road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin, scarce manufacturer spot inventory and sustained cost pressures contrast with weak downstream acceptance of high prices, leading to stagnant trading. Sporadic price increases are possible in the short term. For adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin, manufacturers have acceptable order books, strong cost support, and reduced supply, leading to steady-to-modest price increases during negotiations.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)