1. Key Market Focus This Month
① Mixed C5 prices fell by 3.40%, while pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices dropped by 5.12%.
② Isoprene, piperylene, and dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) prices rose by 7.02%, 5.19%, and 9.99%, respectively, allowing C5 fine separation enterprises to return to profitability.
③ Petroleum resin prices continued to rise slightly due to improved downstream consumption and increased stockpiling demand.
2. Monthly Market Analysis
This month, industrial pyrolysis C5 prices saw only a minor increase compared to the previous month. With crude oil prices remaining high and the gasoline market weak, East China mixed C5 prices fell by 3.40%, leading to a 5.12% drop in pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices. Downstream consumers of isoprene monomers largely operate under long-term contracts with moderate price acceptance, resulting in varying degrees of price increases for these monomers. Consequently, C5 fine separation enterprises turned profitable during the month. Regarding petroleum resins, tight supply of raw material C5 kept operating rates low. The market maintained a balance between production and sales, making it difficult for manufacturers to build significant inventory (or only building slight inventory). As a result, rising raw material costs pushed petroleum resin prices up synchronously or even more sharply.
3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors
The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market initially rose before falling, ending with an average price increase. The national index monthly average price was 7,443 RMB/ton, up 13.65% month-on-month. Specifically, Middle East conflicts caused volatile fluctuations, driving crude oil prices higher. In September, average monthly prices for both gasoline and diesel from independent refineries in Shandong rose. The average monthly price for National VI Standard 92# gasoline was 9,881 RMB/ton, an increase of 1,284 RMB/ton (14.94%) month-on-month. Although favorable supply-demand dynamics for the substitute product, mixed C5, ended, strong terminal demand throughout the month led to an initial rise followed by a decline in mixed C5 prices, with the average closing higher. For pyrolysis C5 residual liquid, prices fluctuated upward in the early-to-mid part of the month as traders and downstream factories actively entered the market. However, in the latter half, the downward trend in mixed C5 dragged down prices, and pressure on refineries to clear inventories before holidays led to price cuts to stimulate sales. Traders and downstream factories lacked confidence in the outlook, resulting in sluggish market trading activity.
The DCPD market continued its upward trend this month. Although pyrolysis C5 output increased, leading to a slight recovery in DCPD supply, there was no significant increase in spot market availability. Meanwhile, rising operating rates for downstream hydrogenated DCPD resins boosted essential consumption, tightening spot supplies. Additionally, concentrated exports in October further strained the spot market given already low factory inventories. High prices reduced procurement willingness, but essential demand combined with low supply remained the primary market supports. As of October 28, ex-factory self-pickup prices for DCPD ranged from 9,900 to 10,400 RMB/ton, while auction prices reached 10,600 RMB/ton.
Piperylene prices rose this month. A slight increase in pyrolysis C5 raw material prices provided cost support. On the supply side, Shanghai Petrochemical’s small-scale separation unit remained shut down, and Fushun Yikesi experienced temporary short stoppages. Tight pyrolysis C5 supply kept factory operating loads low, resulting in scarce overall market货源 (supply), which supported producers in maintaining firm prices and withholding sales. Downstream resin inventories were not under pressure, with adhesive resin stocks particularly low, supporting essential raw material demand. Most curing agent producers had short shutdowns during the National Day holiday, but with low raw material inventories, they replenished essential inputs upon returning to work after the holiday. Currently, mainstream ex-factory prices for domestic piperylene range from 9,200 to 10,900 RMB/ton.
Isoprene prices continued to rise this month. Slight increases in pyrolysis C5 raw material prices and tight supply constrained factory operating loads, keeping them at low levels. Scarce overall market supply supported producers in maintaining firm prices and withholding sales. While pushing up SIS (Styrene-Isoprene-Styrene) block copolymer prices faced resistance, high production volumes maintained essential raw material consumption. Acceptance of higher prices in other downstream sectors remained decent, with buyers chasing the rally based on essential needs. Export arbitrage opportunities also drove export volume growth. The combination of existing domestic demand and growing external demand further exacerbated the tight supply situation, continuing to push market prices upward. Current mainstream bid/ask prices in the domestic market range from 14,100 to 15,200 RMB/ton.
4. Next Month Market Forecast
Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices are expected to rise slightly. International crude oil prices still have room to climb, and short-term tightness in the gasoline market may ease as overall inventory levels rise to medium-high ranges. Mixed C5 supply will remain normal, meaning non-deep-processing demand will stay relatively weak, likely causing pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices to decline. Conversely, in the deep processing sector, downstream demand for isoprene monomers and petroleum resins will remain robust during the peak season. Price acceptance is near its limit, leaving little room for further price hikes. However, strong support from the deep processing sector, combined with expected decreases in supply volume in November and tight pyrolysis C5货源 (supply), will keep prices relatively firm. Phase-wise small price increases cannot be ruled out.
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