Morning Market Briefing on the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Focus Points

1. Multiple parties continue to push for de-escalation in the Middle East, easing supply risk concerns and leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil futures (December contract) closed at $99.90/bbl, down $1.86/bbl (-1.83% WoW); ICE Brent Crude Oil futures (December contract) closed at $113.88/bbl, down $1.93/bbl (-1.67% WoW). China INE Crude Oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 8.1 CNY to 731.6 CNY/bbl; the night session dropped by 18.7 CNY to 712.9 CNY/bbl.
2. As of the 27th, Japanese Naphtha closed at $1,059.25/ton, up $13/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore Naphtha closed at $112.73/barrel, up $1.19/barrel from the previous trading day.
3. Yesterday, domestic pyrolysis C5 prices from major enterprises remained stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices retreated to around 7,330 CNY/ton, with moderate sales volume. Residual liquid prices continued to remain below feedstock pyrolysis C5 prices. Pyrolysis C5 prices among private enterprises were partially stable, narrowing the price gap between major and private enterprises. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels of isoprene monomers combined with strong downstream demand pushed prices higher. Resin prices are supported by costs, but buying enthusiasm remains weak.
4. Yesterday, most domestic markets for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid maintained stability or adopted a wait-and-see approach, with minor declines in scattered markets. Gasoline market prices rose, reflecting inventory accumulation at refineries. The mixed C5 market (a homogeneous product) continued to trend upward. With limited positive market sentiment, pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices largely stabilized across most markets.
5. Yesterday, the domestic piperylene market saw localized increases. Factories continued low supply, but downstream capacity to chase higher prices was limited, with trading activity driven primarily by rigid demand. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,600 CNY/ton.
6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market maintained its strong trend. The tight supply situation showed no signs of easing, forcing downstream buyers to chase high prices for rigid demand. Market participants are closely monitoring load changes in downstream SIS units. Mainstream bid prices in the East China market ranged from 14,100 to 15,200 CNY/ton.
7. Yesterday, domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) continued its upward trend. Ex-factory self-pickup prices ranged from 9,900 to 10,400 CNY/ton, mainly serving long-term customers and fulfilling prior orders. Spot market availability was tight, pushing auction prices up to 10,500 CNY/ton. Downstream procurement remained based on rigid demand, keeping the market firm.
8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,850 to 11,000 CNY/ton. Temporary maintenance shutdowns at some units reduced supply, while non-deep-processing sectors continued to incur losses. Combined with rising feedstock C5 prices at the start of the week, resin prices saw sporadic increases despite weak acceptance from downstream buyers. Most prices remained stable.
9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin (piperylene-based) ranged from 11,800 to 13,600 CNY/ton, while de-cyclicized adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin prices ranged from 10,500 to 11,200 CNY/ton. Tight raw material supplies led to lower operating rates and reduced output. Downstream buyers have mostly booked November volumes, indicating short-term supply tightness and steady-to-rising prices.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 temporarily stable; Isoprene partially rising; Piperylene partially rising; Dicyclopentadiene rising; C5 petroleum resin prices seeing sporadic increases.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices from major enterprises are expected to remain stable. Private enterprise prices were temporarily stable yesterday. Mixed C5 prices saw a slight decline yesterday. Currently, residual liquid prices consistently remain below pyrolysis C5 prices, dragging down separation profits while providing support for pentene monomer prices. Additionally, low pentene monomer inventories and export support are keeping prices firm. Regarding resins, weak downstream demand and moderate purchasing enthusiasm mean that current price hikes face only average acceptance from downstream buyers.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to strengthen. Amidst Middle East conflicts, crude oil prices remain high, driving gasoline market price increases and shipment activities. Refinery supplies of mixed C5 (a homogeneous product) are tight with high prices. Boosted by homogeneous products and firm feedstock trends, Chempricehub predicts an upward trend for the pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market in the near term.

Overnight crude oil price declines have dampened market entry enthusiasm. Yesterday, gasoline market prices rose, but shipping conditions were poor. Refinery prices for mixed C5 increased due to tight spot availability. Chempricehub expects the mixed C5 market to consolidate at high levels today.

Isoprene prices are expected to consolidate at high levels. While overall tight supply continues to provide support, downstream main drivers lack momentum to push prices further. Persistent profit losses pose a risk of adjusting operating rates, leading to expectations of temporary price stability.

Piperylene prices are expected to stabilize temporarily. Factories currently face no inventory pressure, supporting firm pricing. However, given that prices are already at high levels, downward transmission resistance remains significant, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for piperylene.

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) is expected to maintain a firm trend. Short-term spot supply shows no increase, while downstream rigid demand persists despite high costs. Under supply-demand dynamics, the high-price trend is expected to continue.

For road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin, scarce manufacturer spot volumes and persistent cost pressures contrast with weak downstream acceptance of high prices, resulting in stagnant trading. Prices may see sporadic increases in the short term. For adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin, manufacturers have decent order books, strong cost support, and reduced supply, leading to negotiated prices trending slightly upward from a stable base.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)