According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of polyester staple fiber first fell and then rose in January. As of January 31, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,649 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.19% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, demand-side support was insufficient, leading to a narrow and weak adjustment in prices. Starting from late January, cost-side support strengthened, and overall market sentiment improved, with capital showing a preference, which boosted the price of polyester staple fiber. The international crude oil market experienced an upward trend. As of January 29, the settlement price for the March contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $65.42 per barrel, while the settlement price for the April contract of Brent crude oil futures was $69.59 per barrel. The crude oil market was influenced by multiple positive factors, including supply disruptions due to winter storms in the United States and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The core driver was significant short-term supply disturbances, coupled with a rebound in geopolitical risk premiums, leading to a concentrated release of bullish sentiment and a sustained rise in crude oil prices.
In January, the domestic PTA market followed the fluctuations in crude oil. As of January 31, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,298 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.33% compared to the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the operating rate of the PTA industry was 75% by the end of the month. Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million-ton unit shut down on January 6, Yisheng New Materials’ 3.6 million-ton unit shut down on January 14, Dushan Energy’s 3 million-ton unit restarted on January 14, and Zhuhai BP’s 1.25 million-ton unit shut down on January 16. Currently, supply-side changes are minimal. With the continuous reduction in downstream polyester loads, it is expected that the accumulation of PTA social inventory will also expand.
Driven by the significant rebound in raw material prices for polyester staple fiber, downstream yarn mills, in order to maintain profitability or reduce losses, have attempted to pass on the risk of rising raw material costs downstream. However, as the holiday atmosphere intensifies in the consumer end, production restrictions and shutdowns are entering a "countdown" phase. Currently, textile terminal orders are weak, profits are thin, and with the Spring Festival approaching, weaving enterprises will gradually go on holiday, leading to a near-stagnation in terminal production. Purchasers exhibit strong resistance, and market inquiries and transactions are rapidly declining.
Analysts at Business Society believe that, in the short term, the price of polyester staple fiber will mainly follow the fluctuations in raw materials. Recently, the seasonal decline in weaving terminals has become evident, while the supply of polyester staple fiber remains high. Supply and demand are expected to weaken marginally, limiting the upside potential for polyester staple fiber prices.
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