Pre-holiday demand remains sluggish, and ethylene glycol prices continue to retreat.

1. Today's Summary:

① MEG inventory at East China main ports was 86,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from the previous statistical period.
② International crude oil prices declined, while coal prices rose.
③ Shipments from East China main ports decreased compared to the previous period.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Market Closing Prices (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On September 30, the closing price for MEG in Zhangjiagang was 6,195 CNY/ton, a drop of 305 CNY/ton. The delivered closing price in the South China market was 6,500 CNY/ton, a drop of 180 CNY/ton. The USD-denominated closing price remained stable at 735 USD/ton.

The MEG market experienced a rebound after hitting a low today. There were virtually no transactions for spot cargoes arriving this week in Zhangjiagang; trading focused primarily on early October cargoes. Early October cargoes opened around 6,120 CNY/ton in the morning. Trading was sluggish in the morning, with prices fluctuating in the 6,100–6,150 CNY/ton range. In the afternoon, prices followed the futures market upward, and by close, early October cargoes were negotiated around 6,400 CNY/ton. The basis for early October cargoes ranged from Oct+420 to Oct+480. The South China market was lackluster, with weak downstream essential demand and stagnant transactions.

3. Spot Basis

The basis for early October cargoes is in the range of Oct+420 to Oct+480.

Table 2: Changes in Jiangsu Market Spot Basis (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3: Operating Rates by MEG Process (Unit: %)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

On September 30, domestic MEG overall operating rate was 63.70% (stable); integrated units operated at 63.18% (stable); coal-to-MEG units operated at 64.60% (stable).

Total domestic MEG capacity as of February 2026 was adjusted upward to 30.819 million tons. Among these, syngas-to-MEG capacity remained stable at 11.3 million tons. Non-syngas capacity increased by 800,000 tons due to BASF's Zhanjiang plant, rising to 19.519 million tons.

Table 4: Profit Margins by MEG Process (Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Main Port Shipment Status:

On September 29, 2026, daily MEG shipments from a major warehouse zone in Zhangjiagang were 2,800 tons, up 47.37% from the previous period. Daily MEG shipments from two major warehouse zones in Taicang were 2,400 tons, down 52.00% from the previous period.

Main Port Inventory Status (Updated on Mondays and Thursdays):

As of September 28, total MEG inventory in East China main port areas was 86,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous period.

In detail: Zhangjiagang held 35,000 tons, Taicang held 26,000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou held 10,000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu held 15,000 tons.

Regarding shipments for this period: Zhangjiagang averaged 4,100–4,200 tons per day, while Taicang averaged 5,500 tons per day.

Table 5: Weekly Comparison of East China Port Inventories (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Market Sentiment

Table 6: Sentiment Expectations of Upstream and Downstream Domestic MEG Participants (Updated Every Thursday)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

6. Outlook:

With geopolitical tensions easing, crude oil prices have fallen. Facing dual pressures from costs and supply, the MEG market is expected to undergo adjustments after the holiday. The mainstream trading range is projected to be between 6,200 and 6,600 CNY/ton.

7. Related Product Trends

1. Related Product Prices

Table 7: Prices of Related Products in the Polyester Industry Chain (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

2. Utilization Rates of Polyester-related Products:

PTA utilization: Stable at 75.67%, with a capacity base of 93.30 million tons/year.
Polyester utilization: Stable at 71.98%, with a capacity base of 91.025 million tons/year.

3. Intraday Sales Ratio of Polyester Products:

Today (Sep 30, 2026), the average sales ratio for sample polyester filament manufacturers was 24.6%, down 47.2 percentage points from the previous trading day's closing data, and down 192.8 percentage points from the previous trading day's final data. Most market participants replenished stocks yesterday; today saw mostly wait-and-see attitudes, resulting in cold sales for polyester filaments. Specific sales ratios were: 40%, 35%, 30%, 20%, 15%, 0%, 0%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 15%, 30%, 30%, 20%, 15%, 0%, 20%, 60%, 30%, 20%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 40%.

Today (Sep 30, 2026), the sales ratio for Chinese direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was 48.33%, down 0.69 percentage points from the previous trading day. Specific sales ratios were: 68%, 20%, 0%, 20%, 0%, 30%, 80%, 45%.

Today (Sep 30, 2026), the sales ratio for sample polyester chip enterprises was 20.68%, down 74.45 percentage points from the previous period (Sep 29, 2026). Downstream users had already moderately stocked up in the previous two days, and combined with weakening crude oil trends, market transaction sentiment clearly declined today. Specific sales ratios were: 0%, 30%, 45%, 20%, 0%, 30%, 15%, 0%.

8. Data Calendar (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)