Lead: This week, the domestic sulfuric acid market continued its weak performance, with regional divergence becoming more pronounced. As of August 21, the average domestic sulfuric acid price stood at 1,700 yuan/ton, down 2.19% from the previous week. Overall supply was ample on the supply side, while downstream demand remained persistently sluggish. Phosphate fertilizer, chemical, and other sectors largely maintained just-in-time procurement, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere. Meanwhile, sulfur feedstock prices pulled back from highs but remained at elevated levels, providing a degree of bottom-line cost support for sulfuric acid prices. Caught between the supply-demand tug-of-war and cost-side standoff, the sulfuric acid market is unlikely to see a trend reversal in the short term, with regional price spreads continuing to widen.
I. Intensifying Regional Divergence: Most Regions Under Downward Pressure, While Fujian Rises Against the Trend
The most prominent feature of the domestic sulfuric acid market this week was the clear divergence in regional trends.
Declining regions dominated the market. Quotes in Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui continued to be lowered, with reductions concentrated in the 100–135 yuan/ton range. In Hubei, delivered prices for 98% smelter acid were around 1,550–1,650 yuan/ton, down 3.13%–5.71% week-on-week; in Hunan, ex-works prices for 98% smelter acid fell to 1,450–1,550 yuan/ton; and in Anhui, prices for 98% smelter acid dropped to 1,485–1,515 yuan/ton. Central China emerged as the core region of this price decline, driven by the resumption of production at units that had undergone maintenance, the regular inflow of external supply, and, on the demand side, weak purchasing willingness among core consumers such as phosphate fertilizer producers, alongside elevated finished-goods inventories. The Shandong sulfuric acid market also continued its downward trajectory, with declines across all product types. Ore-based acid units in central Shandong proactively extended maintenance cycles due to losses, yet this provided only extremely limited marginal support to the spot market. The autumn fertilizer stocking season arrived "belatedly," with phosphate fertilizer enterprises maintaining only just-in-time purchases. Chemical downstream sectors such as titanium dioxide and caprolactam, constrained by profitability and the off-season, operated at low utilization rates and focused on destocking. The supply-demand imbalance became increasingly pronounced, and inventory pressure at major acid plants continued to climb.
Fujian was one of the few rising regions. Supported by tight regional supply, Fujian implemented three price increases during the week, accumulating gains of 60–90 yuan/ton. As of August 21, delivered prices for 98% smelter acid in Fujian stood at 1,860–2,010 yuan/ton, up 3.33%–3.61% week-on-week. On the supply side, some acid plants saw reduced actual output due to the low sulfur grade of raw materials, and with enterprise inventories at low-to-mid levels, regional supply was relatively tight. However, the persistent decline in acid prices in external markets weighed on Fujian's local sentiment, intensifying downstream wait-and-see attitudes.
II. Cost and Profit: Industry-Wide Pressure, Sustained Losses Across the Chain
Table 1: Weekly Theoretical Profit Changes in the Sulfuric Acid Industry Chain (yuan/ton)
| Product | Current Period | Previous Period | Change | Change Rate | Next-Period Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulfuric Acid | -540 | -565 | 25 | 4.42% | ↓ |
| Monoammonium Phosphate | -1,926 | -2,001 | 75 | 3.75% | ↓ |
| Diammonium Phosphate | -2,258 | -2,394 | 136 | 5.68% | ↓ |
| Titanium Dioxide | -2,874 | -2,983 | 109 | 3.65% | ↓ |
| Caprolactam | -1,820 | -1,995 | 175 | 8.77% | ↑ |
On the feedstock side, the domestic sulfur market continued its downward trajectory this week. The mainstream granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 3.31%. Overseas, demand for sulfur driven by the African copper-uranium industry held prices in the high range of CFR $1,270–1,280/ton, while the Indonesian market was around CFR $1,050/ton. Domestically, the ongoing standoff between industrial users and traders persisted, with sellers gradually losing pricing leverage and buyers clearly adopting a wait-and-see stance, pushing the market lower overall. In Shandong, the sulfur market fell and then rebounded this week, with refinery release volumes reduced and overall supply-demand remaining relatively tight. In the northwest region, plant prices continued to decline, with transaction ranges falling to 8,260–8,850 yuan/ton.
Profits across the sulfuric acid industry chain came under comprehensive pressure. According to calculations based on Chempricehub data, among the three acid production processes, sulfur-burning acid profit was approximately -540 yuan/ton, ore-based acid profit approximately -131 yuan/ton, and smelter acid profit approximately 1,400 yuan/ton. Sulfur-burning acid producers faced substantial loss pressure, as high sulfur feedstock prices kept production costs elevated. Downstream product profits were equally discouraging: theoretical profit for monoammonium phosphate was approximately -1,926 yuan/ton, diammonium phosphate approximately -2,258 yuan/ton, titanium dioxide approximately -2,874 yuan/ton, and caprolactam approximately -1,820 yuan/ton. The persistence of losses across the entire industry chain reflects the dual squeeze of weak end-use demand and high raw material costs.
The monoammonium phosphate market remained weak. Although finished-product offtake at compound fertilizer enterprises in certain regions showed slight improvement, the recovery was limited, with buyers still primarily digesting earlier inventories and maintaining a cautious stance toward raw material procurement. The diammonium phosphate market consolidated weakly, with producers strongly inclined to hold prices, but the autumn fertilizer market got off to a noticeably slow start, limiting end-user purchasing enthusiasm.
III. Market Outlook: Weak Consolidation Expected; Focus on the Pace of Demand Recovery
Looking ahead to next week, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to maintain its regional divergence pattern, with overall trading sentiment remaining stalemated.
Cost side: Sulfur prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with spot circulation remaining relatively tight. Pyrite and nonferrous metal ore prices — including copper, lead, and zinc — continue to hold at elevated levels, providing strong support to the sulfuric acid cost side and leaving limited room for producers to concede on pricing.
Supply side: Domestic sulfuric acid unit operating rates are unlikely to see major fluctuations next week. Most major acid plants are expected to maintain current production loads, with no large-scale maintenance or output expansion plans in sight, keeping market supply relatively stable.
Demand side: The phosphate fertilizer market retains a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere, though the advancing autumn fertilizer stocking season has raised expectations for slight operating rate increases at some enterprises. Downstream chemical industry demand is mixed but trending toward modest growth overall. Nevertheless, given the successive price declines across most regions in recent weeks, purchasing sentiment remains pessimistic and trading activity is subdued, intensifying the bargaining between buyers and sellers.
In summary, the combination of strong cost support and stable supply is offset by limited demand recovery and pronounced regional disparities. The sulfuric acid market next week is expected to remain largely rangebound and stalemated, with individual regions adjusting prices flexibly based on local supply-demand conditions. Rises and falls may coexist across regions, but the overall magnitude of price movement is expected to be limited.
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