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Worth watching the export side too. Baltic MAP FOB averaged 651 USD/mt in 2025, roughly 1,300 yuan/mt above domestic levels, but with exports suspended until after spring 2026, that arbitrage is locked out. Once policy loosens, the overseas premium could reset domestic price expectations quickly.
The utilization number understates the pain. Many of the plants still running are doing so to hold market share and honor prepaid orders, not because the economics work. If sulfur stays elevated into the second half, expect a sharper wave of permanent exits among merchant converters rather than temporary maintenance.
The bottleneck is grade, not tonnage. Battery-grade and industrial-grade MAP require purification steps that most fertilizer lines cannot easily add. So even with surplus fertilizer-grade capacity, the high-purity segment stays tight and commands a premium — that gap is where the real investment case sits.