**Supply contraction meets weak demand, intensifying market divergence in the sulfuric acid sector.**

Introduction: The Chempricehub index for domestic 98% sulfuric acid stands at 1,345 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 3.07%. The market continues to exhibit regional divergence with mixed price movements. On the supply side, concentrated maintenance shutdowns across multiple regions have reduced the national sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate to 61.99%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points from the previous period. This contraction in supply provides strong support to local markets. On the demand side, downstream buyers are primarily engaged in essential restocking. Autumn fertilizer application is nearing its end, while winter stockpiling has not yet begun, resulting in limited willingness for large-scale centralized inventory building. Market trends are currently dominated by supply factors driven by maintenance schedules, leading to significant speculative sentiment.

I. Regional Price Movements in the Sulfuric Acid Market

Post-National Day holiday, the domestic sulfuric acid market shows clear regional differentiation, with prices rising in most areas while facing downward pressure in some. Prices increased by 40–650 RMB/ton in Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, and Fujian. In Shandong, where prices were relatively high in the previous period, continuous inflow of low-priced goods from peripheral regions disrupted sales rhythms for some acid producers, causing prices to decline. Hebei and Inner Mongolia also maintained weak trends.

• East China: Regional divergence persists; Shandong is weak but stable, Zhejiang is slightly warm, Jiangsu is characterized by negotiation, and Anhui remains cautious.
• Central China: Post-holiday increases were observed, with widespread price hikes in Hubei, Hunan, and Henan.
• South China: Prices rose steadily after holding firm; Fujian saw cumulative post-holiday increases of 450–650 RMB/ton, shifting the price center upward significantly.
• Southwest China: Localized increases occurred, with Yunnan seeing a slight test rise of 40 RMB/ton.
• Northwest and Northeast China: Markets remained temporarily stable or showed weak consolidation.

II. Supply Side: Concentrated Maintenance Supports Prices as Operating Rates Decline

This week, the domestic sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate fell to 61.99%, down 2.40 percentage points week-on-week and 2.77 percentage points year-on-year. No companies resumed production during this period. The decline was primarily driven by concentrated maintenance entries among acid enterprises in Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia:

• Shandong: Major acid producers in Luxi and Jiaodong entered maintenance periods, affecting approximately 2.7 million tons of capacity. Small-scale refinery-linked acid producers in Shandong also underwent simultaneous maintenance.
• Other Regions: Partial units at major acid producers in Jiyuan (Henan), Anhui, Huludao (Liaoning), and Bayannur (Inner Mongolia) entered maintenance during the week.

Additional planned maintenance units are scheduled for October:

• Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous: 1.8 million ton unit, 45-day plan.
• Shandong Yanggu: 1.7 million ton unit, 25-day plan.
• Anhui Jinxin: 1.7 million ton unit, 20-day plan.
• Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry: 1 million ton unit, 40-day plan.
• Shandong Jiangtong Guoxing: 930,000 ton unit, 30-day plan.
• Sichuan Liangshan Mining: 450,000 ton unit, 1-month plan.
• Jiangxi Kaixin: 240,000 ton unit, 30-day plan.

Supply volumes remain in a shrinking trend, providing bottom-line support to local markets.

III. Demand Side: Weak Phosphate Fertilizer Conclusion and Essential Chemical Demand

Source: Chempricehub

Downstream demand in the sulfuric acid industry chain presents a divergent pattern of "weak fertilizers and pressured chemicals," offering limited overall support to the sulfuric acid market.

Fertilizer Sector:

• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): Capacity utilization stood at 41.36%, a decrease of 4.56 percentage points from the previous period (a 9.93% drop). Production volume was 166,300 tons, down 18,400 tons week-on-week. As autumn wheat fertilizer application concludes in most of North China, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization dropped 1.30 percentage points to 31.02%, many large manufacturers still hold raw material inventories and show little intent for new orders. Combined with localized environmental inspections, operating loads for MAP units declined significantly.
• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Capacity utilization rose 1.48 percentage points to 43.33%, with production increasing 7,200 tons week-on-week to 210,600 tons. However, absolute levels remain low. Distribution to grassroots retailers is slow, bearish sentiment intensifies, low-priced goods are emerging, and bargaining centers continue to shift downward. Downstream restocking willingness remains inactive.

Chemical Sector:

• Titanium Dioxide: Capacity utilization decreased 0.11 percentage points to 73.38%.
• Caprolactam: Capacity utilization fell 1.09 percentage points to 70.78%; forecasts suggest further declines next period.
• Wet-Process Purified Phosphoric Acid: Capacity utilization increased 2.88 percentage points to 54.77%, showing cost-performance advantages and order growth.
• Dicalcium Phosphate: Capacity utilization jumped 7.51 percentage points to 39.77%. Producers in Yunnan resumed operations, and load rates improved in Inner Mongolia, increasing total industry output. However, downstream demand is limited to small-scale, concentrated essential purchases, lacking sustained expansion momentum.

Profit margins for all key downstream products in the sulfuric acid chain were negative this week, as high raw material prices squeezed downstream costs.

• MAP gross profit: -1,793 RMB/ton (weakened by 65 RMB/ton week-on-week).
• DAP gross profit: -1,382 RMB/ton (improved by 46 RMB/ton week-on-week).
• Titanium Dioxide gross profit: -3,103 RMB/ton.
• Caprolactam gross profit: -2,073 RMB/ton (improved by 400 RMB/ton week-on-week).

The deep negative profitability landscape for downstream users suppresses their willingness to purchase sulfuric acid.

IV. Market Outlook

Supply Side: Domestic acid producers' operating rates may continue to decline, maintaining an overall supply contraction. Some plants in Anhui, Shandong, Henan, and Hunan remain under maintenance, while facilities in Sichuan and Guangxi have maintenance plans for next week. Regional supply volumes are expected to decrease further, providing support to local markets.

Cost Side: Prices for sulfur and pyrite are trending downward due to weakness in the fertilizer market. Metal ore prices (copper, lead, zinc) remain stubbornly high. Consequently, cost support for sulfuric acid is collapsing in certain segments, widening the cost disparity between different raw material routes.

Demand Side: Sentiment in the phosphate fertilizer market remains low with weak demand. Downstream chemical industry demand is divergent but generally declining slightly. End-user procurement is primarily essential, with insufficient willingness for large-scale centralized stockpiling.

Conclusion: With concurrent supply reduction and cost relaxation, and a lack of positive catalysts on the demand side, speculative sentiment remains heavy. The domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to continue its regionally differentiated trend next week. Prices will remain relatively firm in areas supported by maintenance shutdowns, but face downward pressure in others due to weak demand and shifting cost bases. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere is unlikely to change in the short term, with acid prices likely to see minor test rises.