【Introduction】As October progresses, disruptions at domestic allyl chloride plants have increased, leading to a continuous contraction in market supply. Coupled with rigid downstream demand providing support, the market trend has exhibited a stepwise upward trajectory. As of October 22, the average price in the Shandong allyl chloride market stood at CNY 10,000/ton, representing a week-on-week increase of 5.26%.
The current rise in allyl chloride prices is primarily driven by supply-side contraction, while raw material costs provide a floor, jointly pushing market prices higher.
I. Cost Side: Raw Materials Fluctuate Downward, but Cost Floor Support Remains
Although raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine showed fluctuating downward trends during this period, their overall prices remain in a relatively high range. This provides strong floor support for allyl chloride production costs, limiting significant downside potential and laying the cost foundation for the current market rally.
II. Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Continuous Supply Reduction vs. Rigid Downstream Demand
Supply Side: Ongoing maintenance disruptions lead to tightening spot supply.
| Metric | Oct 12–15 | Oct 19–22 | Difference | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (10k tons) | 0.66 | 0.56 | -0.1 | -15.2% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Among previously maintained units, only Shandong Sanyue has resumed operations, while most others remain under reduced load or maintenance. Additionally, Yangji’s new 20,000 tons/year unit has entered maintenance, further tightening the commodity supply of domestic allyl chloride. This supply contraction is the core driver behind the current price surge. According to Chempricehub statistics, production during the Oct 19–22 period was 0.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous cycle, demonstrating the persistent impact of supply reduction. Market holders exhibit strong reluctance to sell (holding back inventory), spot availability in circulation is limited, and merchants show a strong willingness to maintain prices, further boosting quoted prices.
Demand Side: Stable operating rates; rigid buying supports the market.
| Process Route | Oct 12–15 | Oct 19–22 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene Method | 95% | 95% | 0.00% |
| Hydrogen Peroxide Method | 50% | 50% | 0.0% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Epichlorohydrin (ECH) is the most critical downstream product for allyl chloride. During this period, operating rates across different process routes remained generally stable, with no significant fluctuations in the load factors for either the propylene method or the hydrogen peroxide method ECH plants. Other downstream sectors also maintained normal procurement activities. Overall, there is a certain level of bottom support from rigid demand on the consumption side, but no strong pull from aggressive chasing of price increases.
III. Outlook: Supply Tightness May Ease, Market Likely to Stabilize and Wait
In the short term, as Binhua and Yangji maintenance units are expected to resume operations, the tight supply situation will be somewhat alleviated, weakening the supply-side support. However, downstream demand does not yet show signs of obvious weakness, and the floor support from rigid demand will likely continue. Comprehensive analysis suggests that the short-term allyl chloride market will primarily stabilize and wait-and-see, lacking momentum for significant price rises or falls. Key focus should remain on tracking the actual resumption progress of maintained units and changes in downstream ECH operating rates and procurement rhythms.
Top 5 Representative Allyl Chloride Enterprises by Operating Capacity:
| Enterprise Name | Capacity (10k tons/year) |
|---|---|
| Wudi Xinyue | 12 |
| Shandong Sanyue | 12 |
| Shandong Binhua | 6 |
| Dongying Liancheng | 6 |
| Zhonghai Fine Chemicals | 3.2 |
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