Domestic acetonitrile prices in China surged further this week, with ex-works prices in East China jumping sharply from RMB 9,300/ton last week to RMB 11,100/ton, marking an increase of 19.35%. Supply reductions both domestically and internationally—particularly a significant drop in overall operating rates for by-product production—coupled with notably tight overseas supply, stimulated a concentrated rise in export inquiries and orders this week. Suppliers, operating with low inventories, collectively pushed prices upward, leading to a substantial rise in overall negotiated transactions.

As a by-product of acrylonitrile production, acetonitrile market trends have consistently been influenced by acrylonitrile dynamics. The recent turmoil in the Middle East has already led to reduced operating rates at acrylonitrile plants, especially with some facilities in South Korea and Taiwan, China, halting production or cutting output. Moreover, the earlier sharp rise in domestic acrylonitrile prices was largely supported by tightening overseas supply and increased export volumes. Historically, market fluctuations driven by supply-side factors typically see acetonitrile reacting 1–2 weeks later than acrylonitrile, and this round has followed the same pattern. Overseas supply reductions emerged as early as March, but acetonitrile export orders have only recently begun to increase, partly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates starting in April. While considerable stockpiling occurred in advance, recent inquiries have been more driven by immediate demand.

Furthermore, domestic acrylonitrile plant maintenance and output reductions have commenced since April. Among these, CNOOC’s Fudao facility has already shut down for maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced output to 50% at the end of March due to associated unit issues, and Jilin Petrochemical began phased maintenance and output cuts this week. The industry capacity utilization rate for acrylonitrile has now fallen to around 70%, with expectations of dropping slightly below this level next week. Consequently, overall by-product supply has contracted, and industry inventories remain low, providing suppliers with conditions to raise prices.

However, with the recent sharp rise in acetonitrile prices, losses from synthetic production have improved. Yet, as high-purity products like preparation-grade acetonitrile have been slow to follow the price increase, synthetic producers have shown greater willingness to sell industrial-grade acetonitrile externally. This may, to some extent, weaken the supportive impact of reduced by-product supply. Additionally, overall domestic demand for acetonitrile remains subdued, and the significant price hike has sparked some resistance among downstream customers. Therefore, further market upside may face certain headwinds, with the pace of increase expected to narrow noticeably.