Recently, as the external situation has eased, prices of bulk energy and chemical products such as international crude oil and propylene have continued to decline. However, acrylonitrile stands out in this context, with prices rising against the trend. Over the past two days, the market has increased by 500-600 yuan/ton. The ex-tank price at East China ports has reached around 10,750 yuan/ton, up 4.88% from the previous week; the delivered price in the Shandong market is around 10,600 yuan/ton, up 6.0% month-on-month. The recent rise in acrylonitrile prices is mainly driven by favorable fundamentals. The reduction in supply, coupled with concentrated export deliveries, has led to tight spot supply and low inventory levels at factories in the Shandong region, further stimulating continuous upward adjustments in spot quotations.

Currently, the operating rate of acrylonitrile capacity has dropped to around 67%. Although there are plans to restart the units at Keluer and Sinochem Quanzhou, they have not yet resumed. Major plants in East China continue to operate at low loads, and upcoming units such as Sierbang, Tianchen Qixiang, Liaoning Jinfu, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical also have plans to reduce loads or shut down. As a result, industry supply is expected to remain at a relatively low level for some time.

Meanwhile, export orders are still being delivered intensively this month. Since the beginning of the month, resources from the Shandong region have been continuously flowing to East China for port consolidation. Coupled with expectations of reduced volumes in East China next month, some buyers in East China began preemptive restocking at low prices from mid-month, driving Shandong regional inventories to low levels. Since last weekend, spot quotations from Shandong factories have risen rapidly, triggering concentrated follow-up purchases from demand buyers. However, spot resources have become scarce, leading to higher negotiated transaction prices and further encouraging suppliers to raise quotations.

However, units such as Keluer are about to restart, which will alleviate some of the supply tightness in both northern and southern regions. Moreover, while acrylonitrile prices have risen sharply recently, the price of its main raw material, propylene, has dropped significantly, weakening cost-side support. Theoretical production margins for acrylonitrile are now gradually recovering, which may introduce uncertainty into the planned load reductions or shutdowns. At the same time, based on previous negotiations and the gradual ramp-up of overseas acrylonitrile units, export volumes are expected to decline in July and August. Additionally, overall downstream consumption of acrylonitrile is entering the off-season. Apart from acrylic fiber maintaining high operating rates, industries such as ABS and acrylamide are seeing declining operating rates. Once the recent phase of demand-driven restocking gradually concludes, the acrylonitrile market is expected to peak and then turn downward.