This week, the market sentiment remained calm, with fundamentals continuing to be weak and localized inventory pressure persisting. However, there are no expectations of supply reduction in the short term, and demand remains lackluster. The quotations from major acrylonitrile suppliers have been continuously lowered, leading to an expansion in market declines. As of January 9, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price in East China ports was 7,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the Shandong market, the short-distance delivery price was 7,200 yuan/ton, also down by 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.

Supply remains ample: During the period, there were no fluctuations in plant operations. Major plants in East China maintained high operating rates, with Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520,000-ton acrylonitrile plant operating at around 85% capacity. Shandong Haijiang’s 130,000-ton acrylonitrile plant is currently under shutdown for maintenance. The overall industry capacity utilization rate remains at around 80%, with no significant changes in supply and demand fundamentals. According to statistics, as of January 8, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile plants reached 78.82%, an increase of 0.49% compared to the previous period. Weekly production was approximately 89,800 tons, up by 500 tons from the previous period. Total inventory stood at around 63,500 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the previous week, indicating continued localized inventory accumulation and rising inventory pressure.

Demand remains lackluster: This week, capacity utilization rates in downstream industries varied. Among them, the capacity utilization rate for ABS was 69.8%, down by 0.1% compared to the previous week. Hangzhou Bay acrylic fiber resumed operations after a brief maintenance shutdown, and Jilin Chemical Fiber’s Huarong plant restarted, bringing the capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises to 57.58%, an increase of 10.47% compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate for acrylamide was 54.19%, down by 0.65% compared to the previous week. Overall, demand has increased slightly but remains generally lackluster.

Rising costs: During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, leading to higher costs. However, acrylonitrile prices declined further, resulting in a significant worsening of production losses. According to statistics, as of January 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 5,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to 5,730 yuan/ton at the end of the previous week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 8,234 yuan/ton, up by 0.88% month-on-month. During the same period, the average production profit for acrylonitrile was -904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 373 yuan/ton month-on-month.

Looking ahead, the domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to remain weak and consolidate. After consecutive declines, some buying interest has emerged, and the pressure from losses has intensified, leading to a temporary slowdown in the market decline. However, fundamentals remain weak, and demand continues to be lackluster. Nevertheless, with potential fluctuations expected in the supply side, the room for further market declines is limited.