The domestic ethanol market remains stable.

1. Today's Summary

① Ethanol prices in the Jilin region of Northeast China remained stable;
② Prices in the Heilongjiang region of Northeast China remained stable;
③ Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable;
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan province remained stable;
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remained stable;
⑥ Downstream chemical demand drove rigid transactions;
⑦ Transaction prices at downstream refineries in Shandong rose slightly.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Today's Commentary:
Taking the Heilongjiang region as a benchmark, today's 95% ethanol closed at 5050-5200 CNY/ton. Ethanol prices in Northeast China remained stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders. The fuel ethanol sector showed weakness; some producers had an eager sentiment to sell off inventory, leading to price declines. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable. Huaxing's unit is undergoing restoration but has not yet officially resumed production, while Houyuan's unit saw no external sales, with factories shipping against contract orders. Ethanol prices in East China remained stable, with limited spot market availability and transactions driven by rigid demand. Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders. Downstream procurement in Shandong saw a slight price increase today.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the domestic ethanol capacity utilization rate remained at 49.55%. Regarding edible ethanol operations: Hongzhan (Heilongjiang), Zhongke Green, Shenglong, Wanli Ethanol, Dongfeng (Jilin), Fukan, Yushu, Xintianlong, Baiyecheng (Inner Mongolia), Hanyong (Henan), Hongzhan (Sichuan), Qufeng (Shandong), Huating (East China), Wanshen (Anhui), COFCO Fuel (Anhui), COFCO Zhaodong, Guotou Jidong, Hailun Bio, and Tieling units were in production. Meanwhile, Huaxing was shut down, Houyuan operated unstably, Longhe was shut down, Guannan Xinguan was shut down, and Luomaiti was shut down. Today, the theoretical profit for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang was 222.58 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China will stay stable as contract orders are fulfilled. Prices in East China will remain stable as downstream sectors absorb recent gains over the short term. Short-term prices in Henan are expected to be stable, though there is potential for a decline once suspended plants resume operations. Coal-based ethanol prices will remain stable with shipments fulfilling contract orders, and there is no immediate inventory pressure. Fuel ethanol prices remain weak, with some producers showing an eager sentiment to sell off inventory.

5. Related Product Updates

1. Dried Cassava Chips: On October 20, the FOB (Bangkok) quote for Thai dried cassava chips was USD 245/ton; the CNF quote for Vietnamese dried cassava chips was USD 245/ton.
2. Corn: The market lacks upward momentum in the short term, and downside space is limited. Corn prices are expected to maintain a narrow-range fluctuation pattern.
3. Ethyl Acetate: The ethyl acetate market price in East China dropped by 50 CNY/ton, executing at 6550-6920 CNY/ton (ex-factory, cash payment). Bottom support weakened, downstream inquiry enthusiasm was poor, and transactions were mostly small-scale purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in thin trading volume.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)